Miami International Holdings, Inc. (MIAX) - Deep Dive Research Report

Research Date: May 11, 2026

1. What the Company Does

Miami International Holdings runs stock exchanges. Specifically, it operates a group of eight exchanges across options, equities, futures, and international securities markets. Despite its name, the company is headquartered in Princeton, New Jersey - Miami is the location of its newest trading floor.

The company was founded in 2007 by Thomas P. Gallagher, a corporate securities lawyer who spent his career building Gallagher, Briody & Butler, a Princeton-based law firm. Gallagher saw an opening in the U.S. options market: the incumbent exchanges were running on aging technology, and a purpose-built electronic exchange with superior speed, determinism, and reliability could win meaningful share. He spent five years building the technology and navigating SEC approval before launching the first MIAX Options exchange in December 2012.

The core value proposition is straightforward: MIAX provides a marketplace where buyers and sellers of options contracts (and increasingly equities, futures, and listed securities) can transact. The exchange earns a small fee on each transaction, plus revenue from market data feeds, connectivity, and listing fees. The technology underneath is the competitive weapon - MIAX's proprietary matching engine processes 38 million quotes per second with round-trip latency of approximately 16 microseconds. Wire-order determinism - meaning the system processes orders strictly in the order they arrive on the wire, with no random variation - is the specific technical feature that market makers prize. A market maker quoting on MIAX can predict precisely when their quote update will be reflected, which lets them quote tighter spreads with higher confidence.

Here is what a typical interaction looks like: a retail investor in Chicago places an order through their broker (say, Schwab or Robinhood) to buy 10 call options on Apple expiring Friday. The broker's smart order router evaluates the best available price across all 18 U.S. options exchanges. If MIAX Options, MIAX Pearl, MIAX Emerald, or MIAX Sapphire is showing the best price (or the best combination of price and execution quality), the order routes there. MIAX's matching engine pairs it with a market maker's quote, the trade executes, and MIAX collects a per-contract transaction fee from both sides. The entire process takes microseconds.

From one exchange in 2012, Gallagher has built a group that now operates four U.S. options exchanges, one U.S. equities exchange, one U.S. futures exchange, and two international listing venues (Bermuda Stock Exchange and The International Stock Exchange in Guernsey). The company went public on August 14, 2025, pricing its IPO at $23 per share - shares jumped 38% on the first day of trading.

"We built the church for Easter Sunday." - CEO Thomas Gallagher, Q3 FY25 concall, describing MIAX's infrastructure investments ahead of peak market volatility

2. Business Segments

MIAX reports four business segments: Options, Equities, Futures, and International.

2.1 Options

This is the engine of the business. The Options segment operates four distinct U.S. options exchanges, each with its own pricing model and allocation priority, all running on the same proprietary technology stack:

• MIAX Options (launched December 2012): Pro-rata allocation with customer rebate pricing. Market makers are incentivized to post large, tight two-sided quotes because the pro-rata model rewards them proportionally to their quoted size. This was the original exchange and remains a high-volume venue.

• MIAX Pearl (launched February 2017): Price-time allocation with maker-taker pricing. The first order at the best price gets filled first, which encourages aggressive pricing. Maker-taker means liquidity providers (makers) receive a rebate while liquidity takers pay a fee.

• MIAX Emerald (launched March 2019): Pro-rata allocation with maker-taker pricing. A hybrid design combining the large-quote incentives of pro-rata with the rebate economics of maker-taker.

• MIAX Sapphire (launched August 2024 electronically; physical trading floor opened September 2025): Price-time allocation with taker-maker (inverted) pricing. Taker-maker flips the economics: the party removing liquidity earns a rebate, which attracts aggressive retail and institutional flow.

The rationale for four exchanges is not redundancy - each model attracts a different type of order flow. Some market makers prefer pro-rata because they can quote large size and get proportional fills. Others prefer price-time because they can win fills by being fastest to the best price. Retail brokers often prefer taker-maker because their customers earn rebates for taking liquidity. By operating four venues with distinct economics, MIAX captures a broader cross-section of the options market than any single exchange design could.

The Options segment generated approximately 83% of total company revenue in Q4 2025. Market share reached a record 18.2% of the U.S. multi-listed options market in Q4 2025, and averaged 17.3% in Q1 2026. Average daily volume hit 10.9 million contracts in Q1 2026, up 27% year-over-year.

MIAX Sapphire's physical trading floor in Miami's Wynwood district is the first national securities exchange trading floor to open in Miami, and only the second open outcry trading floor to launch in the U.S. in the last 50 years. The 38,400-square-foot facility includes a Bloomberg TV broadcast studio and conference facilities. The floor achieved its first million-contract day on April 14, 2026, and captures 6-8% of total industry floor volume, with MIAX's share specifically at 8.1%.

2.2 Equities

MIAX Pearl Equities launched in September 2020 as the company's entry into U.S. cash equity trading. It runs on the same technology stack as the options exchanges but matches orders for stocks rather than options contracts.

The equities business is smaller and earlier-stage. It generated roughly 5% of total revenue in recent quarters. The segment reached EBITDA breakeven in Q4 2025 and achieved positive capture rates in Q1 2026 - a milestone because the equities exchange had previously operated at negative capture rates (paying more in rebates than it collected in fees) to build volume and attract flow.

The competitive position in equities is more challenging than in options. There are 16 U.S. equity exchanges, and competition is fierce. MIAX Pearl Equities holds under 1% market share. The strategic logic for the segment is twofold: it diversifies revenue away from options, and it creates cross-selling opportunities with firms that already connect to MIAX for options.

2.3 Futures

MIAX Futures originated from the acquisition of the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) in December 2020. MGEX was founded in 1881 and was best known as the sole exchange for hard red spring wheat futures. MIAX renamed it MIAX Futures Exchange in 2024 and launched its proprietary Onyx technology platform in June 2025, migrating from the legacy MGEX systems.

The segment also includes Dorman Trading, a Chicago-based Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) acquired in October 2022. Dorman was founded in 1956 to serve floor traders at the Chicago Board of Trade and has evolved into an electronic clearing and execution firm. As an FCM, Dorman holds customer funds and provides access to CME Group exchanges, ICE, and Eurex.

Futures revenue has been relatively flat to slightly declining - $5 million in Q1 2026 versus $6 million a year earlier - reflecting the transition period as participants migrate to the new Onyx platform. But the real growth catalyst for this segment is ahead: the Bloomberg Equity Index Futures suite, launching May 17, 2026 (Bloomberg 100 contract), with the B500 Tini on June 1 and full-size B500 on June 8.

This is the segment management is most excited about from a long-term perspective. The Bloomberg products represent MIAX's attempt to challenge the near-monopoly that CME Group holds in U.S. equity index futures through its S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 contracts.

2.4 International

The International segment operates two offshore listing venues:

• The Bermuda Stock Exchange (BSX): Majority stake acquired in December 2020. BSX provides listing services for insurance-linked securities, investment funds, and other structures that benefit from Bermuda's regulatory environment.

• The International Stock Exchange (TISE): Acquired in June 2025 for approximately $91.5 million. Headquartered in Guernsey (Channel Islands), TISE is one of Europe's major professional bond markets with over 4,400 securities on its Official List representing more than GBP 750 billion in total market value.

The International segment generated approximately 5% of total revenue in recent quarters ($6 million in Q1 2026 versus $1 million a year earlier, with the jump driven by the TISE acquisition). Revenue here is primarily listing fees and annual maintenance fees - an annuity-style model that is less volatile than transaction revenue.

In January 2026, MIAX also completed the sale of 90% of MIAXdx (formerly LedgerX, a CFTC-regulated crypto derivatives exchange acquired from FTX's bankruptcy in 2023) to a joint venture between Robinhood Markets and Susquehanna International Group for an undisclosed sum. The entity was renamed Rothera Exchange and Clearing LLC, and MIAX retained a 10% equity stake. The divestiture reflects a strategic decision to exit the prediction markets/crypto derivatives space and let partners with direct retail distribution (Robinhood) and market-making expertise (Susquehanna) develop it.

Segment Comparison

3. Products and Business Detail

Product Catalogue

Exchange Services (Transaction Revenue)

• Multi-listed equity and ETF options trading across four exchanges (MIAX Options, Pearl, Emerald, Sapphire)
• U.S. cash equity trading (MIAX Pearl Equities)
• Agricultural commodity futures (hard red spring wheat) and financial futures
• Clearing and settlement through the Options Clearing Corporation (OCC) for options and futures

Bloomberg Equity Index Products (Launching Q2 2026)

• Tini Bloomberg 100 Index Futures - retail-sized contract providing U.S. large-cap technology exposure
• Tini Bloomberg 500 Index Futures - retail-sized broad U.S. large-cap benchmark
• Bloomberg 500 Index Futures (full-size) - institutional contract
• All three clear through OCC, providing margin offsets against existing options positions

The Bloomberg indices use a rules-based, algorithmic methodology for index construction - no committee makes subjective decisions about which stocks go in or out. This is a direct contrast to the S&P 500, where an index committee exercises discretion. Management frames this transparency as a selling point for investors who want predictable, reproducible index composition.

Market Data Products

• Real-time quote and trade data feeds from each exchange
• Historical data products
• Analytics and order routing data

Listing Services

• BSX: insurance-linked securities, investment funds, equity listings in Bermuda
• TISE: bonds, funds, SPVs, and equity securities listed in Guernsey/Channel Islands
• MIAX Futures: commodity and financial futures listings

Execution and Clearing (Dorman Trading)

• Futures execution and clearing for introducing brokers, retail customers, and institutional traders
• Full clearing membership at CME Group exchanges (CBOT, CME, NYMEX, COMEX), ICE, and MGEX
• Customer fund segregation and regulatory compliance

Technology Licensing

• Miami International Technologies (MIT) licenses proprietary exchange technology to third parties
• The same technology platform deployed for BSX's integrated trading, clearing, settlement, and depository system (deployed March 2025)

Technology Platform

MIAX's technology is built entirely in-house - no third-party matching engine vendors. Key performance characteristics:

• 38 million quotes per second sustained throughput
• 15.89 microsecond average round-trip latency
• 23.11 microsecond latency at 99th percentile
• 45.44 microsecond latency at 99.9th percentile
• Wire-order determinism: orders processed strictly in arrival sequence

The platform runs across data centers in New Jersey (primary, co-located with other exchanges) and Miami (Sapphire trading floor). Each of the four options exchanges runs its own instance of the matching engine, but they share common infrastructure for connectivity, risk management, and surveillance.

Geographic Footprint

• Princeton, NJ: Corporate headquarters, technology development
• Miami, FL: MIAX Sapphire trading floor (Wynwood district), growing office presence
• Minneapolis, MN: MIAX Futures Exchange operations (legacy MGEX)
• Chicago, IL: Dorman Trading operations
• Hamilton, Bermuda: Bermuda Stock Exchange
• St. Peter Port, Guernsey: The International Stock Exchange
• Equinix Data Centers, NJ: Co-location for matching engines

Key Milestones Timeline

4. Customers

MIAX's customers fall into three distinct categories, each with different buying dynamics:

Market Makers

Market makers are MIAX's most important customer segment. These are firms like Citadel Securities, Susquehanna (SIG), Wolverine Trading, and Jane Street that continuously post buy and sell quotes on the exchange, providing liquidity for other participants. Market makers choose which exchanges to quote on based on:

• Technology quality: Latency, determinism, and throughput directly affect a market maker's ability to manage risk. A market maker quoting on 18 exchanges simultaneously needs confidence that when they send a cancel message, it will be processed in a predictable timeframe. MIAX's wire-order determinism is specifically designed for this use case.
• Allocation model: Pro-rata exchanges (MIAX Options, Emerald) reward market makers who quote large size. Price-time exchanges (Pearl, Sapphire) reward market makers who are fastest to the best price. Different market-making strategies favor different models.
• Fee structure: The maker-taker or taker-maker economics determine whether the market maker receives a rebate for posting liquidity or pays for the privilege.

Switching costs for market makers are moderate. Connecting to a new exchange requires technology integration, regulatory registration, and ongoing quoting obligations - but most large market makers are already connected to all 18 U.S. options exchanges. The switching cost is less about leaving MIAX than about whether MIAX's economic incentives and technology remain competitive enough to attract a market maker's best quotes and largest size.

Retail Brokers

Firms like Robinhood, Schwab, Interactive Brokers, and E*Trade route retail customer orders to exchanges. The broker's smart order router decides where each order goes based on execution quality metrics - price improvement, fill rates, and speed. Retail brokers are increasingly important because retail participation in options has surged, particularly in short-dated (zero-days-to-expiry) contracts.

Retail flow is considered "uninformed" - retail traders are statistically less likely to be trading on private information than institutional traders. This makes retail flow highly desirable for market makers, who can quote tighter spreads against it. Exchanges that attract more retail flow can offer market makers better economics, creating a virtuous cycle.

MIAX Sapphire's taker-maker pricing was specifically designed to attract retail flow by offering rebates to liquidity takers (the retail side of the transaction).

Issuers and Listed Companies (International Segment)

For BSX and TISE, the customers are companies and fund managers seeking a listing venue. The buying decision for a listing venue is made by legal counsel, corporate finance advisors, and the issuer's board. Criteria include:

• Regulatory environment and reputation
• Listing fees and ongoing annual costs
• Speed of approval process
• Recognition by institutional investors and counterparties

Switching costs for listed issuers are high - delisting and relisting involves legal, regulatory, and administrative costs, plus potential disruption to secondary market trading. Once a security is listed on TISE or BSX, it tends to stay there. This creates the annuity-like revenue profile management highlights.

Customer Concentration

No single customer dominates MIAX's revenue. The exchange model inherently diversifies across hundreds of member firms. However, a handful of large market makers (Citadel Securities, SIG, Wolverine) likely account for an outsized share of transaction volume. If a major market maker significantly reduced its activity on MIAX's exchanges, it would impact volumes and market share.

5. Competitive Landscape

The U.S. options exchange market has 18 registered exchanges operated by six exchange groups. Here is how market share breaks down (approximate, as of Q1 2026 based on MIAX disclosures and Cboe data):

Why MIAX Wins

• Technology: MIAX's in-house technology stack with wire-order determinism gives market makers confidence to post larger quotes and tighter spreads. Management claims this is the primary reason MIAX has gained share from ~7.5% in 2023 to ~17% in 2026.
• Four pricing models: By operating four exchanges with distinct economics, MIAX captures order flow that would otherwise go to competitors. No other exchange group offers the same breadth of model diversity with a single technology platform.
• Short-dated options: MIAX has been aggressive in expanding Monday and Wednesday expirations for single-stock options, currently offering nine actively traded names. Early results show MIAX capturing 18-20% market share in these new expiration classes.

Why MIAX Could Lose

• Scale disadvantage in proprietary products: Cboe owns the VIX and SPX options franchises, which are single-listed (only tradeable on Cboe). These products generate high-margin revenue that MIAX cannot access. Similarly, Nasdaq owns PHLX, which dominates institutional options flow.
• Equities remain subscale: Under 1% market share in U.S. equities is well below the level needed to be a meaningful competitive force.
• Futures are unproven: The Bloomberg Index Futures products launching in May 2026 are competing against CME's decades-old S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 franchise. Index futures markets are winner-take-most because of liquidity network effects - traders want to trade where other traders already are.

Barriers to Entry

Starting a new exchange requires SEC (or CFTC) registration, which involves extensive regulatory review, technology testing, and compliance infrastructure. Capital requirements are significant. But the real barrier is the chicken-and-egg problem: an exchange needs market makers to provide liquidity, but market makers only quote where there is order flow, and order flow only goes where there is liquidity. MIAX spent years and hundreds of millions of dollars building volume before achieving profitability.

MEMX (Members Exchange), backed by a consortium of brokers and market makers, launched in 2020 and has slowly built share - demonstrating that entry is possible but requires deep-pocketed backers and patience.

Structural Shifts

The options industry is experiencing a secular volume expansion driven by retail participation and the explosion of short-dated options. This is a rising tide that lifts all exchange operators, but MIAX has been gaining share within the expanding pie - its volume growth has consistently outpaced industry growth. The question is whether this share gain can continue or whether MIAX is approaching a natural ceiling.

6. Industry

Demand Drivers

U.S. options volume is driven by three structural forces:

1. Retail participation: Commission-free trading (pioneered by Robinhood in 2019) brought millions of new participants into options markets. Retail flow now accounts for an estimated 50-60% of zero-DTE options trading volume.

2. Short-dated options expansion: The introduction of daily expirations for SPX (by Cboe) and subsequently for individual stocks has created an entirely new category of trading activity. Zero-DTE options traded 110 million contracts in a single day on October 10, 2025 - a record. Short-dated contracts tend to be cheaper in absolute terms, encouraging higher volumes.

3. Volatility: Options are risk management tools. Elevated geopolitical uncertainty (trade wars, monetary policy transitions, AI-driven sector rotation) drives hedging demand and speculative activity.

Industry Size

Total U.S. options volume reached 15.2 billion contracts in 2025, up 26% from 2024 and marking the sixth consecutive record year. Average daily volume was 61 million contracts. The industry has grown at a compound rate of roughly 20% annually since 2019.

The addressable market is expanding: as more stocks gain daily expirations, the volume pie grows. Management and industry observers expect continued growth in 2026, though the rate may moderate from 2025's pace if volatility normalizes.

Exchange Economics

Exchange operators have high operating leverage. The marginal cost of processing an additional contract is near zero - the technology infrastructure is a fixed cost. This means that as volumes grow, margins expand sharply. MIAX demonstrated this in Q1 2026: revenue grew 40% while adjusted EBITDA margins expanded 800 basis points to 51%.

Revenue per contract (capture rate) varies by exchange and pricing model. Exchanges compete aggressively on fees, which creates a race-to-the-bottom dynamic on per-contract economics. The offset is volume growth: even if revenue per contract declines, total revenue grows if volume increases faster.

Regulation

U.S. options exchanges are regulated by the SEC under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Each exchange must file its rules, fee schedules, and any changes with the SEC for approval. Futures exchanges are regulated by the CFTC. MIAX holds registrations with both regulators, plus financial regulatory approvals in Bermuda and Guernsey.

The SEC has been supportive of competition among exchanges, approving new exchange applications and expanded expiration dates. However, the SEC could change course - for example, by restricting zero-DTE products if they are deemed to create systemic risk, or by mandating consolidated audit trails that increase compliance costs for smaller exchanges.

Cyclicality

Options volume is positively correlated with volatility. Bear markets and crisis periods (2020 pandemic, 2022 inflation shock, 2025 tariff escalations) tend to produce the highest volumes. Calm, steadily rising markets produce lower volumes. This makes exchange revenue somewhat countercyclical relative to the broader economy, though not perfectly so.

7. Growth Triggers

All triggers sourced from the three available earnings calls (Q3 FY25, Q4 FY25, Q1 FY26). MIAX went public in August 2025, so there is no Q2 FY25 earnings call.

• Bloomberg Equity Index Futures launch: Bloomberg 100 contract launching May 17, 2026; B500 Tini on June 1; full-size B500 on June 8. Products clear through OCC for margin efficiency against options portfolios. Management positioned this as the single most important growth catalyst. (Q4 FY25 concall, Feb 25 2026; reiterated Q1 FY26 concall, May 6 2026)

  "There hasn't been a real strong competitor to the existing index complex... over 95% of volume is concentrated in two products." - CEO Gallagher, Q1 FY26 concall

• Monday and Wednesday single-stock options expirations: Nine actively traded names launched January 22, 2026. MIAX capturing 18-20% market share in these new expiration classes. Management views this as additive to overall industry volume, not redistributive. (Q4 FY25 concall, Feb 25 2026; updated Q1 FY26 concall, May 6 2026 - repeated)

• MIAX Sapphire trading floor ramp: First million-contract day achieved April 14, 2026. Floor market share of 8.1%. Management plans enhanced functionality and expanded market maker participation. (Q3 FY25 concall, Nov 5 2025; updated Q1 FY26 concall, May 6 2026 - repeated)

• Equities segment path to sustained profitability: Achieved breakeven EBITDA in Q4 2025 and positive capture rates in Q1 2026. Management targeting sustained profitability by focusing on quality of flow and net capture rates rather than headline volume. (Q4 FY25 concall, Feb 25 2026; confirmed Q1 FY26 concall, May 6 2026 - repeated)

• Zero-DTE single-stock options (regulatory approval pending): Management flagged this as a potential major catalyst, pending SEC approval. If approved, MIAX would offer same-day expiration for individual stocks alongside indices. (Q3 FY25 concall, Nov 5 2025)

• Event-based contracts and crypto derivatives optionality: MIAX retained a 10% stake in Rothera (formerly MIAXdx) after selling 90% to the Robinhood/SIG JV. This provides upside exposure to the prediction markets and crypto derivatives space without ongoing capital commitment. (Q4 FY25 concall, Feb 25 2026)

• Additional commodity and agricultural product launches on Onyx platform: Management indicated plans to expand beyond wheat futures with new products following the Bloomberg suite launch, including potential commodity contracts. (Q1 FY26 concall, May 6 2026)

• International expansion via TISE: The TISE acquisition creates a platform for listing structured products and bonds with global distribution. Management highlighted "annuity-based revenue model" and plans for technology deployment similar to BSX. (Q3 FY25 concall, Nov 5 2025; updated Q4 FY25 concall, Feb 25 2026 - repeated)

8. Key Risks

Bloomberg Index Futures Failure to Launch Successfully

This is the highest-stakes risk for the stock's growth narrative. Index futures markets exhibit extreme network effects - liquidity begets liquidity, and CME's S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 contracts have decades of institutional adoption, enormous open interest, and deep liquidity. Every previous attempt to challenge CME's equity index futures monopoly has failed (including efforts by Cboe, Eurex, and others).

MIAX's differentiation - rules-based index construction, OCC clearing, retail-sized contracts - is real but untested. If the Bloomberg products fail to attract meaningful volume in the first 6-12 months, market makers will withdraw, the liquidity flywheel never starts, and the investment in the Onyx platform and Bloomberg partnership yields no return. Management acknowledged the competitive challenge:

"There hasn't been a real strong competitor to the existing index complex."

This is simultaneously the bull case and the bear case. The mechanism: if institutional traders don't adopt the Bloomberg indices as benchmarks, there won't be natural hedging demand, and the futures will remain curiosity products.

Calibration: High probability of underwhelming early results (most new futures contracts fail), but not existential - MIAX's core options business would continue growing regardless.

Market Share Ceiling in Options

MIAX has grown from ~7.5% to ~17% market share in three years. The question is where the ceiling is. Cboe, Nasdaq, and NYSE are not passive competitors - they are investing in technology, adjusting fee structures, and launching competing products. Share gains become progressively harder as MIAX grows, because it is now large enough that competitors specifically target its flow.

The mechanism: a competitor could match MIAX's technology performance and undercut on fees, eroding the value proposition. Or the SEC could change rules in ways that reduce MIAX's relative advantages.

Calibration: Moderate probability, moderate impact. Even if share gains slow, the industry is growing fast enough that volume growth can continue without share gains.

Technology Failure or Outage

Exchanges are critical infrastructure. A significant technology outage - even for hours - damages an exchange's reputation with market makers for years. MIAX's deterministic technology is a competitive advantage, but complexity creates fragility risk. Running four exchanges on a common platform means a systemic bug could affect all four simultaneously.

Calibration: Low probability, high impact.

Regulatory Risk

The SEC could restrict zero-DTE options, impose new compliance requirements that disproportionately affect smaller exchange groups, or change market structure rules (e.g., mandatory auctions for retail orders, which would reduce exchange transaction revenue). The current regulatory environment has been favorable to competition and new products, but that could change under a different SEC chair.

Calibration: Low-to-moderate probability, potentially high impact depending on the specific change.

Insider Selling Pressure

MIAX went public in August 2025. The IPO lockup has expired, and insiders - including CEO Gallagher - have been selling shares through pre-arranged 10b5-1 plans. Heavy insider selling (over 521,000 shares in recent months) could create technical pressure on the stock price and signal to the market that insiders view the stock as fairly or fully valued.

Calibration: Moderate probability, moderate impact. Selling is expected post-IPO and post-lockup, but the volume is notable.

Futures Segment Drag

The Futures segment is consuming management attention and capital investment (Onyx platform build, Bloomberg partnership, Dorman Trading operations) while generating declining revenue. If the Bloomberg products fail, this segment becomes a cost center with no clear path to justifying the investment.

Calibration: Moderate probability (tied to Bloomberg launch risk), moderate impact.

9. Walk the Talk

Concalls used: Q3 FY25 (November 5, 2025), Q4 FY25 (February 25, 2026), Q1 FY26 (May 6, 2026). Note: MIAX went public in August 2025, so Q3 FY25 was the first earnings call as a public company. Only three concalls are available; a fourth does not exist.

In the Q3 FY25 call - MIAX's debut as a public company - Gallagher struck a confident tone, framing the business as a technology story. He set expectations around several specific initiatives: the Bloomberg Index Futures launch was guided for Q1 2026, MIAX Sapphire's trading floor was presented as early-stage but promising, and the equities segment was characterized as approaching breakeven. He also signaled interest in zero-DTE single-stock options pending regulatory approval.

By the Q4 FY25 call three months later, one commitment had already slipped: the Bloomberg Index Futures launch was pushed from Q1 2026 to Q2 2026, officially described as a delay for "full ecosystem integration." Management did not dwell on the delay or provide extensive explanation. At the same time, several other promises were ahead of schedule: the equities segment hit EBITDA breakeven in Q4 (earlier than the "approaching" language of Q3 suggested), and market share reached a record 18.2% - well above the 17.2% reported in Q3.

The Q4 call also introduced new guidance: 2026 adjusted operating expenses of $265-$275 million, capex of $40-$45 million, and a tax rate of 27-29%. Management framed these as investments in growth (headcount, technology, branding) rather than cost creep.

By the Q1 FY26 call, the Bloomberg launch dates were specific: May 17 for B100, June 1 for B500 Tini, June 8 for full-size B500. This level of specificity - after the earlier delay - suggests management now has high confidence in the timeline. The equities segment continued progressing, achieving positive capture rates. Options market share moderated slightly to 17.3% (from the Q4 record of 18.2%), but management emphasized "quality of flow" over headline share, suggesting a deliberate shift in strategy rather than a loss of momentum. Opex guidance was reaffirmed at $265-$275 million.

The overall pattern across three calls is one of credible, slightly conservative guidance with occasional slips on product launch timing. The Bloomberg delay is the only clearly missed commitment. Financial performance has consistently exceeded guidance and consensus estimates: Q3 EPS of $0.42 (first quarter as a public company, no prior consensus), Q4 EPS of $0.52 (vs $0.33 consensus), Q1 FY26 EPS of $0.42 (vs $0.27-$0.36 consensus, depending on source).

Assessment: Management appears to under-promise and over-deliver on financials while occasionally being optimistic on product launch timelines. This is a common and generally benign pattern. Gallagher's communication style is confident but not hyperbolic. CFO Lance Emmons provides specific, measurable guidance that has been met or exceeded. With only three quarters of public-company track record, the sample is small, but the early evidence is positive for credibility.

10. Shareholder Friendliness Index

MIAX does not pay dividends. The company has not initiated or announced any share repurchase program. This is expected for a recently-IPO'd growth company deploying capital into new product launches (Bloomberg Index Futures), technology development, and acquisitions. The company ended Q1 2026 with $551 million in cash and less than $2 million in debt, providing substantial financial flexibility for either organic investment or M&A.

There is no publicly available data on net change in shares outstanding over three years because the company only went public in August 2025. Pre-IPO share count data is not comparable due to conversions of preferred stock, non-voting shares, and option exercises at IPO. Post-IPO dilution from stock-based compensation is a factor: 2026 share-based compensation is guided at $27-$30 million, which was down from 2025 due to IPO-related acceleration charges.

Verdict: Hoards Capital - the company retains all earnings and has no stated capital return program, consistent with its growth-stage positioning and recent IPO status.

11. Insider Activities

MIAX went public in August 2025, so all insider activity occurs in the context of a recent IPO with expiring lockup periods.

Recent Transactions (Most Recent First)

Buys - Reading the Signal

Murray Stahl, a director and CEO of asset manager Horizon Kinetics, is the only insider who has been buying in the open market. Horizon Kinetics held approximately 4.56 million shares as of the most recent filing. The August 2025 purchase of 34,470 shares at $36.10 (shortly after the IPO) and the March 2026 purchase of 7,200 shares at $43.38 (at a higher price) suggest sustained conviction rather than a one-time allocation. However, Stahl's buying is through Horizon Kinetics' managed accounts where he does not exercise direct investment discretion, making it more institutional allocation than personal conviction buying.

No other director, officer, or insider has made open-market purchases.

Sells - Working Out the Why

The selling pattern is consistent with post-IPO/post-lockup monetization. Key observations:

• CEO Gallagher's selling is the largest in dollar terms ($9.7 million in April alone). All sales were conducted under a Rule 10b5-1 plan adopted on December 29, 2025 - well in advance and at a time when the stock was trading in the mid-$30s. The plan was established months before execution, reducing the inference that sales reflect a negative view of near-term prospects. Gallagher is a founder who held illiquid equity for 18 years prior to the IPO; diversification is the most natural explanation.

• Option exercises at $12/share followed by immediate sales (Brown, Eckert, the unnamed EVP) reflect standard post-IPO option monetization. These options were granted at much lower valuations, and the spread between $12 exercise price and $42-$47 sale price represents years of accumulated compensation. Tax planning is the primary driver.

• Director Teekell's small sales (300 shares, 3,000 shares) are immaterial in dollar terms.

Net Assessment

Insiders are heavily net sellers, with over 521,000 shares sold in recent months versus approximately 42,000 shares purchased. The selling is concentrated in the CEO and is conducted almost entirely through pre-arranged 10b5-1 plans established in December 2025. The buying is concentrated in one director (Murray Stahl/Horizon Kinetics) with an institutional rather than personal character.

Signal: Neutral with mild concern. The insider selling is large in absolute terms but explainable by post-IPO diversification, option monetization, and pre-planned trading schedules. The absence of open-market buying by any officer or director other than Stahl is notable - no one at MIAX has been voluntarily adding to their position at current prices. This is not unusual for a company 9 months post-IPO, but it does not provide the bullish signal that cluster buying would.

12. Scenarios

Bull Case

The Bloomberg Index Futures launch in May-June 2026 catches fire. A critical mass of institutional traders adopts the B500 as a credible alternative to the E-mini S&P 500, attracted by the rules-based index methodology, OCC clearing margin offsets, and competitive pricing. Retail traders embrace the retail-sized contracts as a cheaper way to express directional views on the U.S. market. Within 18 months, the B500 has enough open interest that market makers commit permanently, and the liquidity flywheel starts spinning.

Simultaneously, MIAX's options business continues gaining share as short-dated options expand to more stocks and more expiration days. The SEC approves zero-DTE single-stock options, and MIAX - with its technology advantage in fast-expiring contracts - captures disproportionate share. Options market share pushes above 20%. The equities segment reaches consistent profitability. TISE and BSX grow their listings base through technology upgrades and MIAX's global distribution.

The result is a multi-asset exchange group with the fastest-growing options franchise, a viable equity index futures business, and international listing venues generating annuity revenue. The high operating leverage of the exchange model means margins expand toward 55-60%.

Base Case

The options business continues performing well, with market share stabilizing in the 16-18% range as competitors respond. Volume growth tracks the industry rate of 10-15% annually, driven by continued retail participation and short-dated options adoption. The Bloomberg Index Futures launch produces modest initial volumes - enough to show proof of concept but nowhere near enough to challenge CME's dominance. The products survive but remain niche for several years.

The equities segment maintains breakeven profitability without becoming a meaningful contributor. The international segment grows slowly through new listings at TISE and BSX. Management executes on its opex guidance and continues exploring bolt-on acquisitions. Insiders continue selling through 10b5-1 plans as the post-IPO overhang gradually clears.

MIAX becomes a solid, growing exchange operator with a dominant position in multi-listed options and several promising but unproven growth bets. Margins stabilize in the high 40s to low 50s range.

Bear Case

The Bloomberg Index Futures launch fails to gain traction. Institutional traders stick with CME's well-established contracts, and the retail-sized products don't generate enough volume to sustain market maker commitment. After 12-18 months of subsidizing the business, MIAX quietly de-emphasizes the products. The Onyx platform investment and Dorman Trading acquisition prove to be capital misallocated away from the core options business.

Meanwhile, the options market hits a growth plateau. Industry volume growth slows to single digits as retail enthusiasm fades and volatility normalizes. Competitors - particularly Cboe with its proprietary SPX/VIX franchise and Nasdaq with its deep institutional relationships - fight aggressively for share. MIAX's market share drifts back toward 15%.

The SEC introduces market structure reforms (such as mandatory retail auctions) that reduce exchange transaction revenue. The equities segment remains subscale and starts burning cash again. Heavy insider selling depresses the stock price, creating a negative sentiment spiral.

The company is not at risk of failure - it has $551 million in cash and minimal debt - but growth stalls, margin expansion reverses, and the stock re-rates as the market realizes the growth premium was unjustified.

13. Further Reading

No coverage found from SemiAnalysis, Stratechery, or MBI Deep Dives at the time this report was generated.

Sources: MIAX Q3 FY25 earnings call (Nov 5, 2025), Q4 FY25 earnings call (Feb 25, 2026), Q1 FY26 earnings call (May 6, 2026), MIAX investor relations (ir.miaxglobal.com), SEC filings (EDGAR), MIAX company website (miaxglobal.com), Cboe market statistics, Options Clearing Corporation, press releases via PR Newswire, Wikipedia, MarketsWiki.