BAX
Second WindAI neutralBaxter International Inc. · Healthcare · United States · $13.1B cap · $182.5M/day traded
$26.34 -0.3% · close 11 Nov · scored 12 Nov
Second Wind: Cheap with strong momentum, but the business does not earn the optimism.
Around its 29 Oct results, analysts left next year's EPS estimate little changed.
As of 12 Nov 2026, the MoatMap Score for Baxter International Inc. (BAX) is 74/100, ranked against 25,000+ stocks in 38 markets (Quality 42, Value 54, Momentum 74, each scored against its sector).
Does the score work? Each tenth of the ranking, tracked monthly. See the record →
Baxter is restructuring after selling its kidney care business, is paying down debt through tender offers and has appointed a new chief financial officer from Smith & Nephew. It is a turnaround with modest quality scores, not an established compounder.
ABOUT BAXTER INTERNATIONAL INC.
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Baxter International Inc. is a global healthcare company providing a broad portfolio of essential healthcare products, including kidney dialysis, sterile IV solutions, infusion systems, and surgical equipment. The company benefits from high switching costs for critical medical devices and a global installed base within hospitals and clinics. Baxter is a significant player in kidney care and hospital products, offering life-sustaining therapies and essential medical technologies worldwide.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 10.1B | 10.4B | 10.6B | 11.2B | 3.8% | 11.6B | 11.7B | 12.0B | 3.1% |
| EPS | -4.83 | 5.25 | -1.27 | -1.87 | — | -1.21 | — | — | — |
| Shares | 504.4M | 507.6M | 510.9M | 514.3M | +2.0% | 517.3M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 17.2B | 14.1B | 13.4B | 9.8B | -17.2% | 8.8B | — | — | — |
| Equity | 5.8B | 8.4B | 7.0B | 6.1B | 1.7% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 1.2B | 1.7B | 1.0B | 845.0M | -11.3% | 1.6B | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | -931.0M | 3.2B | -626.0M | 2.8B | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | -1.4B | -3.5B | -1.1B | -4.2B | — | — | — | — | — |
Above its 200-day average and 12% below its 52-week high.
Swung more than 50% of stocks we rank over the past year (volatility 42% a year).
How this is worked out
The MoatMap Score weighs the business, its price and its trend. The price check reads only the chart: the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn (the Turning up rule above) cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: how much the price moved day to day over the past year, scaled to a yearly figure (annualised volatility) and ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Healthcare, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of BAX are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAX | Baxter International Inc.(you) | $13.1B | 74 |
| AVTR | Avantor, Inc. | $11.7B | 74 |
| COO | The Cooper Companies, Inc. | $11.6B | 68 |
| SOLV | Solventum Corporation | $14.5B | 66 |
| ALGN | Align Technology, Inc. | $11.0B | 88 |
| ATR | AptarGroup, Inc. | $8.0B | 65 |
| WST | West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc. | $27.6B | 81 |
| RGEN | Repligen Corporation | $11.2B | 53 |
| TFX | Teleflex Incorporated | $5.8B | 65 |
| ICUI | ICU Medical, Inc. | $4.2B | 72 |
Peer medians: ROE -31.0% · P/E 25.9x · Gross margin 63.3%
Company Deep Dive
A 10,000-word report: the business and its segments, what management promised on earnings calls and whether it delivered, the competition, and how things could turn out.