EVO.AX
HoldBargain BinEmbark Early Education Limited · Consumer Defensive · Australia · $52M cap · $85K/day traded
AUD 0.36 -4.0% · close 23 Oct · scored 24 Oct
Bargain Bin: Looks like a bargain; the quality and the trend say why it is in the bin.
As of 24 Oct 2026, MoatMap's StockRank for Embark Early Education Limited (EVO.AX) is 48/100, ranked against 24,000+ stocks in 35 markets (Quality 45, Value 59, Momentum 37, each scored against its sector).
Does StockRank work? Each month we publish how every decile did, whichever way it went. See the record →
ABOUT EMBARK EARLY EDUCATION LIMITED
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Embark Early Education Limited is a prominent operator of early childhood education and care centers across Australia and New Zealand. The company manages a diverse portfolio of childcare facilities, leveraging centralized corporate support to optimize occupancy rates and operational efficiencies. Its competitive moat is supported by defensive industry dynamics, high regulatory barriers to entry, and substantial government funding support for early childhood education.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (AUD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 19.8M | 20.5M | 25.4M | 34.7M | 20.5% | 101.5M | 34.5M | 36.4M | 2.5% |
| EPS (AUD) | -0.28 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 11.8% | -0.02 | 0.04 | 0.04 | -21.4% |
| Shares | 159.5M | 159.5M | 183.5M | 203.5M | +27.5% | 203.7M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 76.8M | 78.8M | 127.3M | 143.4M | 23.1% | 122.7M | — | — | — |
| Equity | 81.7M | 84.3M | 105.6M | 123.5M | 14.8% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 20.5M | 19.1M | 18.7M | 29.6M | 13.0% | 24.4M | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | 17.8M | 6.0M | -38.0M | -11.9M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | -68.6M | -13.6M | 4.4M | -9.3M | — | — | — | — | — |
Made a new 52-week low 5 trading days ago, 40% below its 52-week high. The fall has not stopped yet.
Calmer than 60% of stocks we rank over the past year (36% a year).
How this is worked out
StockRank judges the business. The price check reads only the chart: it is the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn like this one cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: day-to-day price moves over the past year, as a yearly figure, ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Consumer Defensive, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of EVO.AX are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | StockRank | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EVO.AX | Embark Early Education Limited(you) | $52M | 48 | Hold |
| NDO.AX | Nido Education Limited | $55M | 38 | Hold |
| GEM.AX | G8 Education Limited | $52M | 30 | Sell |
| 3PL.AX | 3P Learning Limited | $68M | 80 | Strong Buy |
| EDU.AX | EDU Holdings Limited | $71M | 99 | Strong Buy |
| IEL.AX | IDP Education Limited | $433M | 30 | Sell |
| BIO.AX | Biome Australia Limited | $59M | 33 | Sell |
| BUB.AX | Bubs Australia Limited | $57M | 22 | Sell |
| LRK.AX | LARK Distilling Co. Ltd. | $53M | 14 | Strong Sell |
| SPG.AX | SPC Global Holdings Ltd | $54M | 11 | Strong Sell |
Peer medians: ROE 5.4% · P/E 20.3x · Gross margin 35.0%
Company Deep Dive
Business segments breakdown, earnings transcript analysis, management credibility scoring, competitive landscape, and scenario modelling.