FIX
HoldFallen FavouriteAI pickComfort Systems USA, Inc. · Industrials · United States · $40.9B cap · $482.0M/day traded
$1,160.86 -9.3% · close 23 Oct · scored 24 Oct
StockRank down 2.2 since 23 Oct: Momentum down 3 after a 9% price fall.
Fallen Favourite: A good business, still expensive, and the price is falling.
Reported 22 Oct: the next-year EPS estimate was little changed across the report (snapshots of 18 Oct and 25 Oct).
As of 24 Oct 2026, MoatMap's StockRank for Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX) is 55/100, ranked against 24,000+ stocks in 35 markets (Quality 85, Value 17, Momentum 46, each scored against its sector).
Does StockRank work? Each month we publish how every decile did, whichever way it went. See the record →
Comfort Systems USA is one of the largest mechanical and electrical contractors in the US, and data centres have become its fastest-growing market, where its modular fabrication capacity and skilled labour are scarce. It reported record revenue in the second quarter, has a record backlog and very high quality scores, and it funds growth from internal cash flow with a steady buyback. Power, cooling and electrical work are becoming the bottleneck in AI data centre construction, so contractors that can deliver these systems on schedule gain pricing power that is not yet fully reflected in multi-year earnings expectations. The shares are expensive on headline valuation metrics, which is the main weakness in the case, and insiders have sold a small amount of stock.
ABOUT COMFORT SYSTEMS USA, INC.
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Comfort Systems USA is a leading national provider of commercial, industrial, and institutional HVAC services, specializing in the design, installation, maintenance, and repair of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning systems. The company operates through a decentralized network of local operating companies, leveraging strong regional presence and expertise to secure projects. Its comprehensive service portfolio and national scale provide a significant competitive advantage in a fragmented market.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.1B | 5.2B | 7.0B | 9.1B | 30.0% | 12.5B | 13.0B | 15.5B | 30.3% |
| EPS | 6.84 | 9.03 | 14.64 | 28.93 | 61.7% | 46.30 | 49.12 | 54.26 | 37.0% |
| Shares | 35.8M | 35.7M | 35.6M | 35.2M | -1.6% | 35.2M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 389.1M | 256.8M | 308.6M | 483.4M | 7.5% | 374.4M | — | — | — |
| Equity | 999.9M | 1.3B | 1.7B | 2.4B | 34.8% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 301.5M | 639.6M | 849.1M | 1.2B | 57.9% | 3.0B | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | -97.2M | -193.0M | -343.5M | -467.3M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | -205.9M | -298.6M | -160.8M | -287.1M | — | — | — | — | — |
No clear trend: not near its 52-week low, and not in a steady uptrend.
Swung more than 74% of stocks we rank over the past year (59% a year).
How this is worked out
StockRank judges the business. The price check reads only the chart: it is the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn like this one cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: day-to-day price moves over the past year, as a yearly figure, ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Industrials, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of FIX are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | StockRank | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIX | Comfort Systems USA, Inc.(you) | $40.9B | 55 | Hold |
| EME | EMCOR Group, Inc. | $28.6B | 63 | Hold |
| J | Jacobs Solutions Inc. | $17.0B | 52 | Hold |
| APG | APi Group Corporation | $17.0B | 51 | Hold |
| STRL | Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. | $10.9B | 55 | Hold |
| IESC | IES Holdings, Inc. | $9.1B | 57 | Hold |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | $82.2B | 34 | Sell |
| ACA | Arcosa, Inc. | $7.3B | 63 | Hold |
| TTEK | Tetra Tech, Inc. | $9.5B | 69 | Buy |
| DY | Dycom Industries, Inc. | $6.8B | 42 | Hold |
Peer medians: ROE 8.9% · P/E 25.9x · Gross margin 29.2%
Company Deep Dive
Business segments breakdown, earnings transcript analysis, management credibility scoring, competitive landscape, and scenario modelling.