HMY
Strong BuyFull HouseAI screen passHarmony Gold Mining Company Limited · Basic Materials · South Africa · $11.7B cap · $61.0M/day traded
$16.72 -0.1% · close 20 Oct · scored 21 Oct
Full House: Strong business, sensible price, market agrees. The rare full house.
As of 21 Oct 2026, MoatMap's StockRank for Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) is 97/100, ranked against 24,000+ stocks in 35 markets (Quality 86, Value 63, Momentum 59, each scored against its sector).
Does StockRank work? Each month we publish how every decile did, whichever way it went. See the record →
Harmony Gold is one of South Africa's largest gold producers with expanding high-grade copper exposure in Papua New Guinea. The company is generating substantial free cash flow driven by elevated precious metal prices, supported by upwards revisions in consensus forward earnings.
ABOUT HARMONY GOLD MINING COMPANY LIMITED
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Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited is a major gold mining and exploration company operating primarily in South Africa and Papua New Guinea. As South Africa's largest gold producer by volume, the company's competitive position is defined by its expertise in managing mature, deep-level underground mines and processing low-grade surface operations. It offers investors high operational leverage to gold prices while actively diversifying its portfolio toward copper-gold assets in Papua New Guinea.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2027E | 2028E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.5B | 2.6B | 3.0B | 3.7B | — | 13.7% | 6.0B | 6.5B | 7.4B | 18.9% |
| EPS | 0.56 | -0.10 | 0.47 | 0.84 | — | 14.7% | 2.74 | — | — | — |
| Shares | — | 616.5M | 618.0M | 619.9M | 632.6M | +2.6% | 627.0M | — | — | — |
| Debt | — | 221.5M | 377.9M | 139.7M | 139.7M | -14.2% | 575.2M | — | — | — |
| Equity | — | 1.8B | 2.1B | 2.5B | 2.5B | 10.7% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | — | 420.6M | 604.2M | 950.6M | 950.6M | 31.2% | 2.0B | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | — | -376.6M | -643.6M | -507.8M | -507.8M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | — | -69.9M | 72.5M | -330.1M | -330.1M | — | — | — | — | — |
No new 52-week low for 29 weeks, 34% above that low, but not back above a rising 50-day average.
The Momentum score still reads 59: it looks back six months, so it has not caught up with this fall.
Swung more than 78% of stocks we rank over the past year (64% a year).
How this is worked out
StockRank judges the business. The price check reads only the chart: it is the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn like this one cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: day-to-day price moves over the past year, as a yearly figure, ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Basic Materials, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of HMY are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | StockRank | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HMY | Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited(you) | $11.7B | 97 | Strong Buy |
| G1FI34.SA | Gold Fields Limited | $37.7B | 93 | Strong Buy |
| PAF.L | Pan African Resources PLC | $3.6B | 92 | Strong Buy |
| DRD | DRDGOLD Limited | $2.2B | 86 | Strong Buy |
| SOL.JO | Sasol Limited | $9.0B | 97 | Strong Buy |
| IMP.JO | Impala Platinum Holdings Limited | $10.9B | 88 | Strong Buy |
| VAL.JO | Valterra Platinum Limited | $21.0B | 95 | Strong Buy |
| NPH.JO | Northam Platinum Holdings Limited | $6.4B | 87 | Strong Buy |
| KIO.JO | Kumba Iron Ore Limited | $4.4B | 91 | Strong Buy |
| SSW.JO | Sibanye Stillwater Limited | $7.5B | 66 | Buy |
Peer medians: ROE 18.5% · P/E 8.3x · Gross margin 34.9%
Company Deep Dive
Business segments breakdown, earnings transcript analysis, management credibility scoring, competitive landscape, and scenario modelling.