HTO
Hot AirH2O America · Utilities · United States · $2.5B cap · $50.5M/day traded
$61.26 -1.3% · close 11 Nov · scored 12 Nov
Score down 1.2 since 11 Nov.
Hot Air: Strong momentum and nothing else: weak business, rich price.
After its 26 Oct results, analysts left next year's EPS estimate little changed.
As of 12 Nov 2026, the MoatMap Score for H2O America (HTO) is 48/100, ranked against 25,000+ stocks in 38 markets (Quality 41, Value 32, Momentum 70, each scored against its sector).
Does the score work? Each tenth of the ranking, tracked monthly. See the record →
ABOUT H2O AMERICA
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H2O America provides essential regulated water and wastewater utility services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across its service territories in the United States. The company's strong competitive moat is inherent in its operating model as a regulated utility, holding exclusive franchises that guarantee stable demand and predictable revenue streams, fortified by high barriers to entry for competitors. H2O America is a critical infrastructure provider, characterized by stable operations within a highly regulated environment.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | 620.7M | 670.4M | 748.4M | 800.6M | 8.9% | 838.2M | 862.2M | 922.3M | 7.3% |
| EPS | 2.04 | 2.44 | 2.69 | 2.87 | 2.93 | 9.5% | 2.57 | 2.87 | 2.72 | -3.7% |
| Shares | — | 30.8M | 32.0M | 33.6M | 36.1M | +17.3% | 48.3M | — | — | — |
| Debt | — | 1.7B | 1.7B | 1.8B | 2.0B | 6.1% | 2.1B | — | — | — |
| Equity | — | 1.1B | 1.2B | 1.4B | 1.5B | 11.5% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | — | 166.2M | 190.8M | 195.5M | 244.8M | 13.8% | 248.2M | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | — | -244.3M | -322.3M | -340.1M | -520.1M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | — | 78.4M | 128.8M | 146.0M | 284.9M | — | — | — | — | — |
Above its 200-day average and 7% below its 52-week high.
Calmer than 86% of stocks we rank over the past year (volatility 23% a year).
How this is worked out
The MoatMap Score weighs the business, its price and its trend. The price check reads only the chart: the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn (the Turning up rule above) cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: how much the price moved day to day over the past year, scaled to a yearly figure (annualised volatility) and ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Utilities, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of HTO are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| HTO | H2O America(you) | $2.5B | 48 |
| CWT | California Water Service Group | $3.0B | 43 |
| AWR | American States Water Company | $3.4B | 59 |
| MSEX | Middlesex Water Company | $1.1B | 41 |
| WTRG | Essential Utilities, Inc. | $12.2B | 51 |
| YORW | The York Water Company | $479M | 46 |
| ARTNA | Artesian Resources Corporation | $352M | 58 |
| PCYO | Pure Cycle Corporation | $260M | 57 |
| AWK | American Water Works Company, Inc. | $28.4B | 54 |
| GWRS | Global Water Resources, Inc. | $228M | 24 |
Peer medians: ROE 9.1% · P/E 20.5x · Gross margin 45.3%
Company Deep Dive
A 10,000-word report: the business and its segments, what management promised on earnings calls and whether it delivered, the competition, and how things could turn out.