MFT.NZ
Strong BuyFull HouseAI pickMainfreight Limited · Industrials · New Zealand · $3.8B
NZD 65.00 -0.1% · close 6 Oct · scored 7 Oct
Full House: Strong business, sensible price, market agrees. The rare full house.
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Mainfreight is a New Zealand-founded logistics group operating in New Zealand, Australia, the Americas, Europe and Asia across freight forwarding, domestic transport and warehousing. It has a rare owner-operator culture: founder Don Braid remains involved, branches are run as profit-sharing units, and management openly plans on a 100-year horizon, which has produced decades of organic growth funded internally. The forwarding arm earns on supply-chain disruption without owning ships or aircraft, and customers rebuilding safety stock need more warehousing. Forward estimates were cut 4% as freight volumes softened, so the shares are pricing a cyclical trough in a business that has historically kept compounding through such troughs.
ABOUT MAINFREIGHT LIMITED
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Mainfreight Limited provides supply chain logistics services in New Zealand, Australia, the Americas, Europe, and Asia. It offers domestic transportation, international air and ocean freight forwarding, warehousing, and supply chain management services.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (NZD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | CAGR | TTM | 2027E | 2028E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5.2B | 5.7B | 4.7B | 5.2B | 5.4B | 0.8% | 5.4B | 5.9B | 6.1B | 6.7% |
| EPS (NZD) | — | 4.24 | 2.07 | 2.72 | 2.49 | -16.2% | 2.50 | 3.02 | 3.30 | 15.0% |
| Shares | — | 100.7M | 100.7M | 100.7M | 100.7M | 0.0% | 100.7M | — | — | — |
| Debt | — | 1.0B | 1.2B | 1.3B | 1.4B | 12.6% | 1.4B | — | — | — |
| Equity | — | 1.7B | 1.9B | 2.0B | 2.1B | 7.4% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | — | 757.2M | 504.8M | 584.4M | 589.4M | -8.0% | 591.3M | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | — | -313.9M | -254.4M | -227.5M | -188.6M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | — | -319.4M | -389.2M | -400.1M | -425.3M | — | — | — | — | — |
Calmer than 74% of stocks we rank over the past year (29% a year).
How this is worked out
What it measures: day-to-day price moves over the past year, as a yearly figure, ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Industrials, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of MFT.NZ are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | StockRank | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MFT.NZ | Mainfreight Limited(you) | $3.8B | 84 | Strong Buy |
| FRW.NZ | Freightways Group Limited | $1.3B | 70 | Buy |
| SKL.NZ | Skellerup Holdings Limited | $856M | 93 | Strong Buy |
| POT.NZ | Port of Tauranga Limited | $3.2B | 36 | Hold |
| NPH.NZ | Napier Port Holdings Limited | $430M | 71 | Buy |
| AIA.NZ | Auckland International Airport Limited | $8.1B | 28 | Sell |
| IFT.AX | Infratil Limited | $8.2B | 24 | Sell |
| PGW.NZ | PGG Wrightson Limited | $92M | 81 | Strong Buy |
| SCT.NZ | Scott Technology Limited | $130M | 71 | Buy |
| AIR.NZ | Air New Zealand Limited | $733M | 26 | Sell |
Peer medians: ROE 5.2% · P/E 30.6x · Gross margin 50.6%
Company Deep Dive
Business segments breakdown, earnings transcript analysis, management credibility scoring, competitive landscape, and scenario modelling.