NVS
Strong BuyPremium GrowerAI neutralNovartis AG · Healthcare · Switzerland · $287.2B cap · $297.1M/day traded
$153.81 +1.8% · close 26 Oct · scored 27 Oct
Premium Grower: Strong business with the market behind it, priced at a premium.
Report expected 27 Oct: the next-year EPS estimate has been little changed over the last 13 weeks.
As of 27 Oct 2026, MoatMap's StockRank for Novartis AG (NVS) is 80/100, ranked against 24,000+ stocks in 35 markets (Quality 75, Value 48, Momentum 55, each scored against its sector).
Does StockRank work? Each month we publish how every decile did, whichever way it went. See the record →
Novartis is a focused innovative-medicines company with strong cash generation and a portfolio growing fast enough to offset generic erosion. It has recent positive multiple sclerosis trial data and support for a PMR drug. Against that, a recent study failure knocked the shares, and patent expiries on major products keep the growth bar high. The business is high quality and largely insulated from energy and freight shocks. At a $270B market cap, however, the upside depends on pipeline execution already reflected in consensus rather than on an unpriced shift. Insider selling is negligible.
ABOUT NOVARTIS AG
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Novartis AG researches, develops, manufactures, distributes, markets, and sells pharmaceutical medicines in Switzerland and internationally.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 43.5B | 46.7B | 51.7B | 56.7B | 9.3% | 56.7B | 57.5B | 61.4B | 4.1% |
| EPS | 3.19 | 7.15 | 5.92 | 7.21 | 31.2% | 6.62 | 7.09 | 7.87 | 4.5% |
| Shares | 2.1B | 2.0B | 2.0B | 1.9B | -10.0% | 1.9B | — | — | — |
| Debt | 27.9B | 26.3B | 31.3B | 35.4B | 8.2% | 49.0B | — | — | — |
| Equity | 59.3B | 46.7B | 44.0B | 46.1B | -8.1% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 14.2B | 14.5B | 17.6B | 19.1B | 10.4% | 18.4B | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | 1.5B | 5.6B | -7.5B | -4.9B | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | -20.6B | -14.3B | -11.7B | -14.9B | — | — | — | — | — |
No clear trend: not near its 52-week low, and not in a steady uptrend.
Calmer than 79% of stocks we rank over the past year (27% a year).
How this is worked out
StockRank judges the business. The price check reads only the chart: it is the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn like this one cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: day-to-day price moves over the past year, as a yearly figure, ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Healthcare, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of NVS are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | StockRank | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVS | Novartis AG(you) | $287.2B | 80 | Strong Buy |
| AZN.ST | AstraZeneca PLC | $264.5B | 77 | Buy |
| GILD | Gilead Sciences, Inc. | $193.5B | 81 | Strong Buy |
| PFE | Pfizer Inc. | $171.2B | 83 | Strong Buy |
| AMGN | Amgen Inc. | $237.5B | 90 | Strong Buy |
| NVO | Novo Nordisk A/S | $172.3B | 83 | Strong Buy |
| ROP.SW | Roche Holding AG | $377.9B | 90 | Strong Buy |
| ABBV | AbbVie Inc. | $504.8B | 86 | Strong Buy |
| MRK | Merck & Co., Inc. | $358.4B | 61 | Hold |
| BMY.TO | Bristol-Myers Squibb Company | $126.2B | 72 | Buy |
Peer medians: ROE 2.7% · P/E 23.5x · Gross margin 53.5%
Company Deep Dive
Business segments breakdown, earnings transcript analysis, management credibility scoring, competitive landscape, and scenario modelling.