PAYX
Strong BuyFull HouseAI neutralPaychex, Inc. · Technology · United States · $42.0B cap · $403.3M/day traded
$118.04 -0.6% · close 23 Oct · scored 24 Oct
Full House: Strong business, sensible price, market agrees. The rare full house.
As of 24 Oct 2026, MoatMap's StockRank for Paychex, Inc. (PAYX) is 85/100, ranked against 24,000+ stocks in 35 markets (Quality 68, Value 52, Momentum 63, each scored against its sector).
Does StockRank work? Each month we publish how every decile did, whichever way it went. See the record →
Paychex is a high-return payroll and HR outsourcer for small and mid-sized US businesses, with sticky customers, strong free cash flow, a buyback and interest income on client funds that benefits if rates stay high. Growth has slowed to mid-single digits organically, the Paycor acquisition adds integration work, and small-business hiring is flat. The shares have derated, but the case rests on steady compounding rather than a clear catalyst.
ABOUT PAYCHEX, INC.
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Paychex, Inc. is a leading provider of comprehensive human capital management (HCM) solutions, including payroll, HR administration, benefits, and retirement services, primarily targeting small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs). The company benefits from an extensive client base and high switching costs for its integrated platform, which simplifies complex regulatory and administrative burdens for SMBs. Paychex's strong customer service and tailored solutions solidify its position as a market leader in outsourced HR and payroll.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | CAGR | TTM | 2027E | 2028E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.6B | 5.0B | 5.3B | 5.6B | 6.5B | 9.0% | 6.6B | 6.9B | 7.2B | 5.4% |
| EPS | 3.87 | 4.32 | 4.69 | 4.60 | 4.90 | 6.1% | 5.04 | 5.30 | 5.68 | 7.7% |
| Shares | 359.9M | 360.5M | 360.1M | 360.5M | 355.6M | -1.2% | 356.0M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 881.2M | 865.7M | 866.3M | 5.0B | 4.6B | 51.2% | 4.6B | — | — | — |
| Equity | 3.1B | 3.5B | 3.8B | 4.1B | 3.7B | 4.9% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 1.6B | 1.7B | 1.9B | 1.9B | 2.6B | 12.6% | 2.3B | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | -1.5B | 211.7M | -260.9M | -3.4B | -1.2B | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | -979.3M | -711.4M | -1.9B | 2.3B | -2.7B | — | — | — | — | — |
Above its 200-day average and 8% below its 52-week high.
Calmer than 72% of stocks we rank over the past year (30% a year).
How this is worked out
StockRank judges the business. The price check reads only the chart: it is the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn like this one cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: day-to-day price moves over the past year, as a yearly figure, ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Technology, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of PAYX are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | StockRank | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAYX | Paychex, Inc.(you) | $42.0B | 85 | Strong Buy |
| ROP | Roper Technologies, Inc. | $43.3B | 83 | Strong Buy |
| WDAY | Workday, Inc. | $50.6B | 87 | Strong Buy |
| ADSK | Autodesk, Inc. | $52.7B | 79 | Buy |
| PTC | PTC Inc. | $21.1B | 87 | Strong Buy |
| ZM | Zoom Communications, Inc. | $27.9B | 96 | Strong Buy |
| SSNC | SS&C Technologies Holdings, Inc. | $19.5B | 80 | Buy |
| ADBE | Adobe Inc. | $102.7B | 88 | Strong Buy |
| ADP | Automatic Data Processing, Inc. | $120.5B | 85 | Strong Buy |
| PAYC | Paycom Software, Inc. | $12.4B | 87 | Strong Buy |
Peer medians: ROE 4.7% · P/E 32.7x · Gross margin 52.1%
Company Deep Dive
Business segments breakdown, earnings transcript analysis, management credibility scoring, competitive landscape, and scenario modelling.