TPB
Strong SellFallen FavouriteTurning Point Brands, Inc. · Consumer Defensive · United States · $1.3B cap · $32.3M/day traded
$67.11 -0.3% · close 28 Oct · scored 29 Oct
Fallen Favourite: A good business, still expensive, and the price is falling.
Report expected 4 Nov: the next-year EPS estimate has fallen 21.4% over the last 14 weeks.
As of 29 Oct 2026, MoatMap's StockRank for Turning Point Brands, Inc. (TPB) is 10/100, ranked against 24,000+ stocks in 35 markets (Quality 53, Value 18, Momentum 12, each scored against its sector).
Does StockRank work? Each month we publish how every decile did, whichever way it went. See the record →
ABOUT TURNING POINT BRANDS, INC.
Read
Turning Point Brands, Inc. manufactures, markets, and distributes branded consumer products, specializing in alternative smoking accessories and smokeless tobacco products. The company's competitive moat is anchored by its portfolio of iconic, high-margin brands, including Zig-Zag rolling papers and Stoker's chewing tobacco, which enjoy dominant market shares and intense customer loyalty. Operating an asset-light business model focused on marketing and distribution, Turning Point Brands generates strong free cash flow while navigating complex regulatory environments.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 321.2M | 325.1M | 360.7M | 463.1M | 13.0% | 507.2M | 567.0M | 639.2M | 17.5% |
| EPS | 0.65 | 2.19 | 2.24 | 3.18 | 69.8% | 2.32 | 1.76 | 2.25 | -15.9% |
| Shares | 17.5M | 17.6M | 17.7M | 19.1M | +9.4% | 20.0M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 420.5M | 377.9M | 261.3M | 309.0M | -9.8% | 310.7M | — | — | — |
| Equity | 111.6M | 151.0M | 188.0M | 354.3M | 47.0% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 30.3M | 66.9M | 67.1M | 57.4M | 23.8% | 32.2M | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | -18.8M | -5.9M | -10.5M | -31.7M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | -43.3M | -49.5M | -128.3M | 148.3M | — | — | — | — | — |
Made a new 52-week low 10 trading days ago, 54% below its 52-week high. The fall has not stopped yet.
Swung more than 68% of stocks we rank over the past year (54% a year).
How this is worked out
StockRank judges the business. The price check reads only the chart: it is the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn like this one cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: day-to-day price moves over the past year, as a yearly figure, ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Consumer Defensive, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of TPB are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | StockRank | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TPB | Turning Point Brands, Inc.(you) | $1.3B | 10 | Strong Sell |
| UVV | Universal Corporation | $978M | 40 | Hold |
| ISPR | Ispire Technology Inc. | $79M | 10 | Strong Sell |
| UTI | Universal Technical Institute, Inc. | $1.2B | 15 | Strong Sell |
| AVO | Mission Produce, Inc. | $1.0B | 23 | Sell |
| COUR | Coursera, Inc. | $1.5B | 25 | Sell |
| LINC | Lincoln Educational Services Corporation | $688M | 21 | Sell |
| XXI | Twenty One Capital, Inc. | $3.6B | 8 | Strong Sell |
| DNUT | Krispy Kreme, Inc. | $489M | 15 | Strong Sell |
| VITL | Vital Farms, Inc. | $392M | 12 | Strong Sell |
Peer medians: ROE 10.0% · P/E 21.7x · Gross margin 34.5%
Company Deep Dive
Business segments breakdown, earnings transcript analysis, management credibility scoring, competitive landscape, and scenario modelling.