UGI
Full HouseAI concernUGI Corporation · Utilities · United States · $8.3B cap · $55.0M/day traded
$37.52 -0.1% · close 11 Nov · scored 12 Nov
Full House: Strong business, sensible price, and the market agrees.
Strong on the numbers, but the AI review named a specific concern. Its reason is in the AI review below.
As of 12 Nov 2026, the MoatMap Score for UGI Corporation (UGI) is 79/100, ranked against 25,000+ stocks in 38 markets (Quality 63, Value 57, Momentum 56, each scored against its sector).
Does the score work? Each tenth of the ranking, tracked monthly. See the record →
KKR has made a takeover bid of about $9 billion for UGI, the natural gas utility and propane distributor, and the shares jumped roughly 13% on the news. With the price now anchored to a cash offer, further upside is largely capped at the bid level, while the underlying propane business (AmeriGas) has a long record of volume decline.
ABOUT UGI CORPORATION
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UGI Corporation is a diversified energy company primarily engaged in the distribution and marketing of natural gas and liquid petroleum gas (LPG), alongside electric generation and midstream infrastructure. The company benefits from stable, regulated utility operations and an extensive network for delivering essential energy services across the United States and Europe.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 10.1B | 8.9B | 7.2B | 7.3B | -10.3% | 7.3B | 7.3B | 7.7B | 3.0% |
| EPS | 5.11 | -7.16 | 1.27 | 3.15 | -14.9% | 3.01 | 2.65 | 3.05 | -1.7% |
| Shares | 209.6M | 209.5M | 214.7M | 214.5M | +2.3% | 214.5M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 7.0B | 7.2B | 7.1B | 7.1B | 0.6% | 7.0B | — | — | — |
| Equity | 6.1B | 4.4B | 4.3B | 4.8B | -7.7% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 716.0M | 1.1B | 1.2B | 1.2B | 19.7% | 1.1B | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | -1.0B | -1.1B | -792.0M | -699.0M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | -51.0M | -168.0M | -506.0M | -406.0M | — | — | — | — | — |
Above its 200-day average and 6% below its 52-week high.
Calmer than 84% of stocks we rank over the past year (volatility 24% a year).
How this is worked out
The MoatMap Score weighs the business, its price and its trend. The price check reads only the chart: the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn (the Turning up rule above) cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: how much the price moved day to day over the past year, scaled to a yearly figure (annualised volatility) and ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Utilities, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of UGI are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| UGI | UGI Corporation(you) | $8.3B | 79 |
| BKH | Black Hills Corporation | $6.1B | 59 |
| OGS | ONE Gas, Inc. | $4.9B | 57 |
| SWX | Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. | $6.6B | 50 |
| SR | Spire Inc. | $5.0B | 50 |
| SPH | Suburban Propane Partners, L.P. | $1.2B | 81 |
| BIPC | Brookfield Infrastructure Corporation | $4.6B | 49 |
| NJR | New Jersey Resources Corporation | $5.4B | 43 |
| ATO | Atmos Energy Corporation | $29.1B | 55 |
| CPK | Chesapeake Utilities Corporation | $3.4B | 47 |
Peer medians: ROE 9.1% · P/E 20.5x · Gross margin 45.3%
Company Deep Dive
A 10,000-word report: the business and its segments, what management promised on earnings calls and whether it delivered, the competition, and how things could turn out.