9946.T
Hot AirMINISTOP Co., Ltd. · Consumer Defensive · Japan · $331M cap · $521K/day traded
JPY 1,776 -0.4% · close 12 Nov · scored 13 Nov
Hot Air: Strong momentum and nothing else: weak business, rich price.
As of 13 Nov 2026, the MoatMap Score for MINISTOP Co., Ltd. (9946.T) is 27/100, ranked against 25,000+ stocks in 38 markets (Quality 33, Value 30, Momentum 50, each scored against its sector).
Does the score work? Each tenth of the ranking, tracked monthly. See the record →
ABOUT MINISTOP CO., LTD.
Read
MINISTOP Co., Ltd. operates a franchise network of convenience stores in Japan and internationally, distinguished by its unique in-store fast-food and dessert counters. As a member of the Aeon Group, the company leverages massive procurement scale, logistics synergies, and shared loyalty programs. It is a specialized niche player in the highly competitive Japanese convenience store market, carving out a distinct identity as a hybrid convenience-dessert retailer.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (JPY)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | CAGR | TTM | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | 81.3B | 79.1B | 87.5B | 91.8B | 4.1% | 94.8B | 117.0B | 27.4% |
| EPS (JPY) | -133.27 | 442.43 | -16.14 | -233.52 | -194.10 | — | -351.76 | — | — |
| Shares | — | 29.0M | 29.0M | 29.0M | 29.0M | -0.0% | 29.0M | — | — |
| Debt | — | 1.5B | 184.0M | 197.0M | 761.0M | -19.4% | 580.3M | — | — |
| Equity | — | 40.6B | 39.6B | 32.5B | 26.5B | -13.3% | — | — | — |
| Op CF | — | -2.1B | 585.0M | 1.9B | 1.8B | 74.8% | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | — | 5.1B | -7.8B | -492.0M | -1.5B | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | — | -1.6B | -795.0M | -806.0M | -217.0M | — | — | — | — |
No clear trend: not near its 52-week low, and not in a steady uptrend.
Calmer than 94% of stocks we rank over the past year (volatility 18% a year).
How this is worked out
The Price check reads only the chart, the price side of the Momentum score in words; it is not the MoatMap Score.
- Still falling: It set a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, after a deep fall.
- Finding a floor: It fell hard, but has set no new low for more than two weeks.
- Turning up: It has climbed off its low and is back above a rising 50-day average.
- In an uptrend: It is near its 52-week high and above its 200-day average.
- No clear trend (this stock): None of the above: no recent deep fall and no steady climb.
- No read yet: Not enough price history yet: it needs a year of trading.
In past US falls, waiting for Turning up cut the chance of another 20% drop from 42% to 33%. Returns were no better, and 33% of turns failed.
The exact rules
Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high, with the low set after the high. Finding a floor is the same fall with no new low in the last two weeks. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average, with the 50-day average above the 200-day, and within 15% of the high. No clear trend is everything else. No read yet is under 252 trading days of history, or missing data. A new state shows once it has held for three trading days.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn (the Turning up rule above) cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: how much the price moved day to day over the past year, scaled to a yearly figure (annualised volatility) and ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Consumer Defensive, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of 9946.T are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9946.T | MINISTOP Co., Ltd.(you) | $331M | 27 |
| 2791.T | Daikokutenbussan Co.,Ltd. | $330M | 41 |
| 9823.T | Mammy Mart Holdings Corporation | $298M | 49 |
| 7643.T | Daiichi Co.,Ltd. | $116M | 46 |
| 7596.T | Uoriki Co., Ltd. | $192M | 67 |
| 9974.T | Belc CO., LTD. | $848M | 61 |
| 8167.T | Retail Partners Co., Ltd. | $372M | 82 |
| 7508.T | G-7 Holdings Inc. | $385M | 83 |
| 2742.T | Halows Co.,Ltd. | $509M | 86 |
| 3539.T | JM Holdings Co.,Ltd. | $496M | 89 |
Peer medians: ROE 8.1% · P/E 16.0x · Gross margin 28.4%
Company Deep Dive
A 10,000-word report: the business and its segments, what management promised on earnings calls and whether it delivered, the competition, and how things could turn out.