AES
Second WindThe AES Corporation · Utilities · United States · $10.7B cap · $138.5M/day traded
$14.92 +0.0% · close 11 Nov · scored 12 Nov
Second Wind: Cheap with strong momentum, but the business does not earn the optimism.
As of 12 Nov 2026, the MoatMap Score for The AES Corporation (AES) is 53/100, ranked against 25,000+ stocks in 38 markets (Quality 32, Value 56, Momentum 61, each scored against its sector).
Does the score work? Each tenth of the ranking, tracked monthly. See the record →
ABOUT THE AES CORPORATION
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The AES Corporation is a global power company that generates and distributes electricity, focusing on accelerating the clean energy transition through a diversified portfolio of renewables and thermal plants, and utility businesses. It benefits from its diversified portfolio across multiple geographies and technologies, experience in developing complex energy infrastructure, and a strategic focus on expanding renewable capacity. AES is a large, globally diversified utility company actively transitioning its portfolio towards sustainable energy sources, while maintaining traditional power generation and distribution.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | 12.6B | 12.7B | 12.3B | 12.2B | -1.0% | 13.6B | 13.2B | 13.4B | 4.8% |
| EPS | -0.61 | -0.82 | 0.37 | 2.38 | 1.26 | 84.5% | 2.49 | 1.23 | 1.28 | 0.9% |
| Shares | — | 668.7M | 669.7M | 711.1M | 712.2M | +6.5% | 713.6M | — | — | — |
| Debt | — | 23.5B | 26.9B | 29.0B | 29.9B | 8.4% | 33.7B | — | — | — |
| Equity | — | 2.4B | 2.5B | 3.6B | 4.1B | 18.6% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | — | 2.7B | 3.0B | 2.8B | 4.3B | 16.6% | 4.9B | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | — | -5.8B | -8.2B | -7.7B | -6.2B | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | — | 3.8B | 5.4B | 5.0B | 2.0B | — | — | — | — | — |
Above its 200-day average and 12% below its 52-week high.
Calmer than 83% of stocks we rank over the past year (volatility 25% a year).
How this is worked out
The MoatMap Score weighs the business, its price and its trend. The price check reads only the chart: the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn (the Turning up rule above) cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: how much the price moved day to day over the past year, scaled to a yearly figure (annualised volatility) and ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Utilities, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of AES are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| AES | The AES Corporation(you) | $10.7B | 53 |
| AVA | Avista Corporation | $3.2B | 69 |
| UTL | Unitil Corporation | $1.0B | 58 |
| SRE | Sempra | $55.0B | 30 |
| WTRG | Essential Utilities, Inc. | $12.2B | 51 |
| PNW | Pinnacle West Capital Corporation | $12.8B | 45 |
| IDA | IDACORP, Inc. | $8.1B | 46 |
| SWX | Southwest Gas Holdings, Inc. | $6.6B | 50 |
| EVRG | Evergy, Inc. | $19.5B | 55 |
| BKH | Black Hills Corporation | $6.1B | 59 |
Peer medians: ROE 9.1% · P/E 20.5x · Gross margin 45.7%
Company Deep Dive
A 10,000-word report: the business and its segments, what management promised on earnings calls and whether it delivered, the competition, and how things could turn out.