AVA
Second WindAvista Corporation · Utilities · United States · $3.2B cap · $31.1M/day traded
$40.34 +0.3% · close 11 Nov · scored 12 Nov
Second Wind: Cheap with strong momentum, but the business does not earn the optimism.
After its 4 Nov results, analysts left next year's EPS estimate little changed.
As of 12 Nov 2026, the MoatMap Score for Avista Corporation (AVA) is 69/100, ranked against 25,000+ stocks in 38 markets (Quality 50, Value 53, Momentum 62, each scored against its sector).
Does the score work? Each tenth of the ranking, tracked monthly. See the record →
ABOUT AVISTA CORPORATION
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Avista Corporation is a regulated utility providing electric and natural gas services to customers across eastern Washington, northern Idaho, and parts of Oregon. As a monopolistic service provider within its territories, the company benefits from stable, regulated revenues and a diversified power generation portfolio including significant hydropower assets. Avista is committed to investing in modern infrastructure and advancing clean energy initiatives across its service areas.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.7B | 1.8B | 1.9B | 2.0B | 4.7% | 1.9B | 2.0B | 2.1B | 2.8% |
| EPS | 2.13 | 2.24 | 2.29 | 2.38 | 3.8% | 2.98 | 2.63 | 2.79 | 8.3% |
| Shares | 74.9M | 78.1M | 80.0M | 82.2M | +9.7% | 83.8M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 2.9B | 3.0B | 3.1B | 3.3B | 4.1% | 3.5B | — | — | — |
| Equity | 2.3B | 2.5B | 2.6B | 2.7B | 5.1% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 124.0M | 447.0M | 534.0M | 469.0M | 55.8% | 510.0M | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | -460.0M | -510.0M | -539.0M | -564.0M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | 327.0M | 85.0M | 0 | 84.0M | — | — | — | — | — |
No clear trend: not near its 52-week low, and not in a steady uptrend.
Calmer than 92% of stocks we rank over the past year (volatility 19% a year).
How this is worked out
The MoatMap Score weighs the business, its price and its trend. The price check reads only the chart: the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn (the Turning up rule above) cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: how much the price moved day to day over the past year, scaled to a yearly figure (annualised volatility) and ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Utilities, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of AVA are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| AVA | Avista Corporation(you) | $3.2B | 69 |
| UTL | Unitil Corporation | $1.0B | 58 |
| AES | The AES Corporation | $10.7B | 53 |
| SRE | Sempra | $55.0B | 30 |
| AWR | American States Water Company | $3.4B | 59 |
| MGEE | MGE Energy, Inc. | $2.8B | 57 |
| MWH | SOLV Energy, Inc. | $4.3B | 57 |
| OGS | ONE Gas, Inc. | $4.9B | 57 |
| NWE | NorthWestern Energy Group, Inc. | $4.8B | 55 |
| BKH | Black Hills Corporation | $6.1B | 59 |
Peer medians: ROE 9.1% · P/E 20.5x · Gross margin 45.3%
Company Deep Dive
A 10,000-word report: the business and its segments, what management promised on earnings calls and whether it delivered, the competition, and how things could turn out.