AGRO
HoldBargain BinAdecoagro S.A. · Consumer Defensive · Luxembourg · $1.5B cap · $5.6M/day traded
$9.56 -1.3% · close 2 Nov · scored 3 Nov
StockRank up 3.0 since 31 Oct: Momentum up 4.
Bargain Bin: Looks like a bargain; the quality and the trend say why it is in the bin.
Report expected 11 Nov: the next-year EPS estimate has risen 15.1% over the last 13 weeks.
As of 3 Nov 2026, MoatMap's StockRank for Adecoagro S.A. (AGRO) is 39/100, ranked against 24,000+ stocks in 35 markets (Quality 29, Value 56, Momentum 45, each scored against its sector).
Does StockRank work? Each month we publish how each tenth of the ranking did, whichever way it went. See the record →
ABOUT ADECOAGRO S.A.
Read
Adecoagro S.A. is a leading agricultural company in South America, involved in a wide range of activities including farming crops, dairy operations, and sugar, ethanol, and energy production. The company leverages a vertically integrated business model and large-scale, efficient operations to maximize profitability across its diverse agricultural holdings. Its significant land bank and operational scale provide a strong competitive advantage in the global agribusiness sector.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.3B | 1.3B | 1.5B | 1.4B | 1.9% | 1.6B | 2.3B | 2.2B | 25.4% |
| EPS | 0.98 | 2.11 | 0.90 | -0.05 | -4.3% | 0.39 | — | — | — |
| Shares | 108.2M | 106.0M | 100.1M | 142.6M | +31.8% | 144.3M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 1.3B | 1.3B | 1.1B | 1.9B | 13.2% | 2.3B | — | — | — |
| Equity | 1.1B | 1.2B | 1.4B | 1.7B | 13.7% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 370.0M | 434.9M | 328.3M | 308.5M | -5.9% | 319.9M | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | -299.3M | -111.6M | -231.6M | -922.9M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | -23.6M | -208.7M | -274.0M | 785.8M | — | — | — | — | — |
No clear trend: not near its 52-week low, and not in a steady uptrend.
Swung more than 65% of stocks we rank over the past year (volatility 52% a year).
How this is worked out
StockRank weighs the business, its price and its trend. The price check reads only the chart: the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn (the Turning up rule above) cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: how much the price moved day to day over the past year, scaled to a yearly figure (annualised volatility) and ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Consumer Defensive, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of AGRO are excluded.
Peer medians: ROE 24.0% · P/E 4.9x · Gross margin 19.0%
Company Deep Dive
A 10,000-word report: the business and its segments, what management promised on earnings calls and whether it delivered, the competition, and how things could turn out.