ALTO
Strong BuyUnloved QualityAI neutralAlto Ingredients, Inc. · Basic Materials · United States · $289M
$3.73 +2.2% · close 8 Oct · scored 10 Oct
StockRank down 1.1 since 9 Oct.
Unloved Quality: Strong and cheap; the market has not turned yet.
Read our full research report on ALTO (Jun 2026), freeAs of 10 Oct 2026, MoatMap's StockRank for Alto Ingredients, Inc. (ALTO) is 83/100, ranked against 24,000+ stocks in 35 markets (Quality 67, Value 80, Momentum 31, each scored against its sector).
Does StockRank work? Each month we publish how every decile did, whichever way it went. See the record →
Alto Ingredients produces ethanol, specialty alcohols and feed co-products. The stock screens cheaply and insiders have made small purchases, but this is a commodity processor whose margin is the spread between corn and ethanol prices. The shares fell about 11% on its second-quarter results, and corn at multi-year highs works against it. There is no durable pricing power or moat that would carry it through the cycle.
ABOUT ALTO INGREDIENTS, INC.
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Alto Ingredients, Inc. is a leading producer of specialty alcohols and essential ingredients, serving the beverage, health, cosmetic, and industrial markets. The company's competitive advantage stems from its strategic transition from low-margin fuel ethanol to high-purity specialty alcohols, supported by a network of strategically located biorefineries. Alto operates as a key domestic supplier, leveraging its integrated logistics and production capabilities to serve demanding commercial customers.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.3B | 1.2B | 965.3M | 917.9M | -11.8% | 943.3M | 966.9M | 977.4M | 3.2% |
| EPS | -0.60 | -0.40 | -0.82 | 0.16 | — | 0.68 | 0.38 | 0.33 | 43.6% |
| Shares | 75.2M | 75.7M | 76.6M | 77.3M | +2.9% | 77.6M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 87.3M | 105.5M | 114.7M | 97.6M | 3.8% | 82.9M | — | — | — |
| Equity | 308.1M | 279.6M | 225.1M | 245.2M | -7.3% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 6.0M | 22.0M | -3.5M | 13.2M | 29.9% | 65.0M | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | -37.7M | -33.0M | -13.5M | -7.4M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | 19.0M | 7.0M | 7.7M | -16.4M | — | — | — | — | — |
No clear trend: not near its 52-week low, and not in a steady uptrend.
Swung more than 94% of stocks we rank over the past year (93% a year).
How this is worked out
StockRank judges the business. The price check reads only the chart: it is the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn like this one cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: day-to-day price moves over the past year, as a yearly figure, ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Basic Materials, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of ALTO are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | StockRank | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALTO | Alto Ingredients, Inc.(you) | $289M | 83 | Strong Buy |
| KOP | Koppers Holdings Inc. | $875M | 85 | Strong Buy |
| MATV | Mativ Holdings, Inc. | $678M | 90 | Strong Buy |
| CMT | Core Molding Technologies, Inc. | $203M | 65 | Buy |
| KRO | Kronos Worldwide, Inc. | $970M | 70 | Buy |
| ODC | Oil-Dri Corporation of America | $1.4B | 78 | Buy |
| MNTK | Montauk Renewables, Inc. | $324M | 47 | Hold |
| SCL | Stepan Company | $1.5B | 76 | Buy |
| IOSP | Innospec Inc. | $2.4B | 89 | Strong Buy |
| FF | FutureFuel Corp. | $228M | 38 | Hold |
Peer medians: ROE 2.9% · P/E 20.7x · Gross margin 28.1%
Company Deep Dive
Read the full research report: business segments breakdown, earnings transcripts review, management credibility analysis, competitive landscape, and scenarios.