AMBP
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Hot Air: Rising on momentum alone: weak business, rich price.
Insufficient evidence for a screen-pass. Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.: fails the quant gate on quality, value (Q41/V44/M80; every leg must be >= 50). Absence of evidence is neutral; nothing adverse is known.
The ranks quoted here are from the day it was written; today's Quality, Value and Momentum are the bars above.
ABOUT ARDAGH METAL PACKAGING S.A.
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Ardagh Metal Packaging is a leading global supplier of infinitely recyclable metal beverage cans, operating advanced manufacturing facilities across Europe and the Americas. The company benefits from long-term, multi-year supply contracts with major global beverage brands, driven by the structural shift from plastic to sustainable aluminum packaging. Its competitive moat is sustained by its massive global scale, highly automated production lines, and close proximity to major customer filling plants.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.7B | 4.8B | 4.9B | 5.5B | 5.4% | 6.0B | 6.1B | 6.3B | 6.9% |
| EPS | 0.38 | -0.12 | -0.05 | -0.02 | — | 0.05 | — | — | — |
| Shares | 597.6M | 597.6M | 597.7M | 597.7M | +0.0% | 597.7M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 3.6B | 3.7B | 3.9B | 4.4B | 7.2% | 4.3B | — | — | — |
| Equity | 455.0M | 100.0M | -142.0M | -683.0M | -78.0% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 205.0M | 616.0M | 450.0M | 449.0M | 29.9% | 495.0M | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | -595.0M | -378.0M | -179.0M | -184.0M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | 499.0M | -348.0M | -81.0M | -374.0M | — | — | — | — | — |
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Consumer Cyclical, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of AMBP are excluded.
Peer medians: ROE 11.4% · P/E 26.1x · Gross margin 53.1%
Company Deep Dive
Business segments breakdown, earnings transcript analysis, management credibility scoring, competitive landscape, and scenario modelling.