ARLO
Fallen FavouriteArlo Technologies, Inc. · Industrials · United States · $1.4B cap · $26.0M/day traded
$11.83 -3.7% · close 12 Nov · scored 13 Nov
Score down 1.3 since 12 Nov.
Fallen Favourite: A good business, still expensive, and its momentum is weak.
Around its 5 Nov results, analysts left next year's EPS estimate little changed.
As of 13 Nov 2026, the MoatMap Score for Arlo Technologies, Inc. (ARLO) is 51/100, ranked against 25,000+ stocks in 38 markets (Quality 76, Value 21, Momentum 49, each scored against its sector).
Does the score work? Each tenth of the ranking, tracked monthly. See the record →
ABOUT ARLO TECHNOLOGIES, INC.
Read
Arlo Technologies, Inc. is a leading provider of smart home security products, specializing in wire-free security cameras, video doorbells, and related cloud services. The company differentiates itself through its user-friendly, high-quality hardware and a growing subscription-based revenue model for cloud storage and advanced features. Arlo targets the do-it-yourself smart home market, building brand loyalty through innovative and convenient security solutions.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | 490.4M | 491.2M | 510.9M | 529.3M | 2.6% | 596.8M | 591.5M | 624.4M | 8.6% |
| EPS | -0.68 | -0.65 | -0.24 | -0.31 | 0.14 | — | 0.22 | 0.19 | 0.21 | 21.1% |
| Shares | — | 88.9M | 95.4M | 100.9M | 105.0M | +18.2% | 107.5M | — | — | — |
| Debt | — | 19.3M | 17.0M | 18.4M | 6.7M | -29.5% | 5.2M | — | — | — |
| Equity | — | 87.7M | 103.3M | 100.9M | 127.8M | 13.4% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | — | -46.0M | 38.3M | 51.3M | 78.7M | 43.4% | 79.3M | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | — | -31.8M | -50.7M | 10.8M | 27.8M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | — | -13.9M | -15.1M | -40.8M | -42.1M | — | — | — | — | — |
No clear trend: not near its 52-week low, and not in a steady uptrend.
Swung more than 70% of stocks we rank over the past year (volatility 56% a year).
How this is worked out
The Price check reads only the chart, the price side of the Momentum score in words; it is not the MoatMap Score.
- Still falling: It set a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, after a deep fall.
- Finding a floor: It fell hard, but has set no new low for more than two weeks.
- Turning up: It has climbed off its low and is back above a rising 50-day average.
- In an uptrend: It is near its 52-week high and above its 200-day average.
- No clear trend (this stock): None of the above: no recent deep fall and no steady climb.
- No read yet: Not enough price history yet: it needs a year of trading.
In past US falls, waiting for Turning up cut the chance of another 20% drop from 42% to 33%. Returns were no better, and 33% of turns failed.
The exact rules
Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high, with the low set after the high. Finding a floor is the same fall with no new low in the last two weeks. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average, with the 50-day average above the 200-day, and within 15% of the high. No clear trend is everything else. No read yet is under 252 trading days of history, or missing data. A new state shows once it has held for three trading days.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn (the Turning up rule above) cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: how much the price moved day to day over the past year, scaled to a yearly figure (annualised volatility) and ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Industrials, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of ARLO are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARLO | Arlo Technologies, Inc.(you) | $1.4B | 51 |
| ROCK | Gibraltar Industries, Inc. | $1.2B | 54 |
| SWIM | Latham Group, Inc. | $782M | 58 |
| NPKI | NPK International Inc. | $925M | 39 |
| JBI | Janus International Group, Inc. | $607M | 45 |
| NX | Quanex Building Products Corporation | $917M | 68 |
| LMB | Limbach Holdings, Inc. | $567M | 62 |
| FBIN | Fortune Brands Innovations, Inc. | $5.1B | 49 |
| RWC.AX | Reliance Worldwide Corporation Limited | $2.3B | 79 |
| SPXC | SPX Technologies, Inc. | $8.0B | 45 |
Peer medians: ROE 8.9% · P/E 24.9x · Gross margin 29.3%
Company Deep Dive
A 10,000-word report: the business and its segments, what management promised on earnings calls and whether it delivered, the competition, and how things could turn out.