ASTH
Strong BuySecond WindAI neutralAstrana Health, Inc. · Healthcare · United States · $1.7B cap · $15.1M/day traded
$38.40 +2.3% · close 12 Oct · scored 14 Oct
Second Wind: Cheap and rising again, but the business does not yet earn the optimism.
Report expected 5 Nov: the next-year EPS estimate has risen 6.3% over the last 13 weeks.
As of 14 Oct 2026, MoatMap's StockRank for Astrana Health, Inc. (ASTH) is 82/100, ranked against 24,000+ stocks in 35 markets (Quality 44, Value 55, Momentum 80, each scored against its sector).
Does StockRank work? Each month we publish how every decile did, whichever way it went. See the record →
Astrana Health runs physician networks and value-based care contracts in the US. It reported record earnings per share and raised guidance in Q2 2026, and forward estimates rose 2.7% in the past month. However, value-based care businesses carry significant risk from medical cost trends and changes to Medicare reimbursement, and quality scores are only modest.
The ranks quoted here are from the day it was written; today's Quality, Value and Momentum are the bars above.
ABOUT ASTRANA HEALTH, INC.
Read
Astrana Health, Inc. (formerly Apollo Medical Holdings) is an integrated healthcare delivery and technology company that provides value-based care management services, primarily to Medicare Advantage members. Its competitive moat is built on a physician-centric, integrated care model that leverages proprietary technology and data analytics to improve patient outcomes and reduce costs for complex populations. Astrana Health is a leading innovator in value-based care, focused on risk-bearing contracts and delivering comprehensive, coordinated care.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | 1.1B | 1.4B | 2.0B | 3.2B | 40.6% | 3.8B | 4.0B | 4.4B | 17.4% |
| EPS | — | 1.09 | 1.30 | 0.91 | 0.46 | -25.0% | 0.83 | 0.66 | 0.79 | 30.9% |
| Shares | — | 46.6M | 46.8M | 47.9M | 48.9M | +5.0% | 49.6M | — | — | — |
| Debt | — | 229.4M | 321.0M | 470.7M | 1.1B | 67.5% | 979.4M | — | — | — |
| Equity | 448.2M | 542.6M | 410.8M | 514.2M | 558.3M | 5.6% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | — | 82.1M | 68.2M | 52.2M | 114.6M | 11.7% | 107.9M | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | — | -7.1M | -65.5M | -192.4M | -539.0M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | — | -20.1M | 3.4M | 135.1M | 569.3M | — | — | — | — | — |
No clear trend: not near its 52-week low, and not in a steady uptrend.
Swung more than 81% of stocks we rank over the past year (67% a year).
How this is worked out
StockRank judges the business. The price check reads only the chart: it is the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn like this one cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: day-to-day price moves over the past year, as a yearly figure, ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Healthcare, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of ASTH are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | StockRank | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASTH | Astrana Health, Inc.(you) | $1.7B | 82 | Strong Buy |
| HCSG | Healthcare Services Group, Inc. | $1.5B | 91 | Strong Buy |
| ARDT | Ardent Health, Inc. | $1.5B | 92 | Strong Buy |
| GRDN | Guardian Pharmacy Services, Inc. | $2.7B | 86 | Strong Buy |
| ADUS | Addus HomeCare Corporation | $2.1B | 95 | Strong Buy |
| MD | Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc. | $2.1B | 97 | Strong Buy |
| INNV | InnovAge Holding Corp. | $1.2B | 69 | Buy |
| AMN | AMN Healthcare Services, Inc. | $1.3B | 97 | Strong Buy |
| NUTX | Nutex Health Inc. | $1.4B | 100 | Strong Buy |
| AVAH | Aveanna Healthcare Holdings Inc. | $2.8B | 94 | Strong Buy |
Peer medians: ROE -26.1% · P/E 28.5x · Gross margin 64.4%
Company Deep Dive
Business segments breakdown, earnings transcript analysis, management credibility scoring, competitive landscape, and scenario modelling.