AVT
Second WindAI neutralAvnet, Inc. · Technology · United States · $7.2B cap · $120.8M/day traded
$83.97 -2.0% · close 13 Nov · scored 14 Nov
Second Wind: Cheap with strong momentum, but the business does not earn the optimism.
After its 4 Nov results, analysts raised next year's EPS estimate 7.0%.
As of 14 Nov 2026, the MoatMap Score for Avnet, Inc. (AVT) is 87/100, ranked against 25,000+ stocks in 38 markets (Quality 42, Value 68, Momentum 78, each scored against its sector).
Does the score work? Each tenth of the ranking, tracked monthly. See the record →
Avnet is one of the largest global electronic component distributors. It earns thin margins on large volumes and its returns move with the semiconductor inventory cycle. Management returns a lot of capital: the dividend was raised 5.7% and filings show heavy share repurchases over the past 90 days. Directors have also sold a small amount of stock. The business is a cyclical, low-margin intermediary rather than a compounder with pricing power.
ABOUT AVNET, INC.
Read
Avnet, Inc. is a global distributor of electronic components, enterprise computing, and embedded solutions, serving a broad customer base from design to production. Its competitive moat is derived from its extensive global logistics network, broad product portfolio from numerous suppliers, and value-added services such as design chain and supply chain solutions. Avnet acts as a crucial intermediary, leveraging its scale and technical expertise to facilitate the flow of electronic components and solutions across industries.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2027E | 2028E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income and shares | |||||||||
| Revenue | 24.3B | 26.5B | 23.8B | 22.2B | -3.0% | 32.5B | 29.8B | 31.5B | 12.4% |
| Net margin | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.1% | -1.7 pts | — | — | — | — |
| EPS | 7.02 | 8.37 | 5.51 | 2.78 | -26.6% | 6.69 | 5.18 | — | 36.6% |
| Share count | 95.7M | 91.5M | 89.0M | 83.9M | -4.3% | 82.2M | — | — | — |
| Balance sheet | |||||||||
| Debt | 1.9B | 3.3B | 3.1B | 2.9B | 15.5% | 4.4B | — | — | — |
| Equity | 4.2B | 4.8B | 4.9B | 5.0B | 6.1% | — | — | — | — |
| Debt/equity | 0.4x | 0.7x | 0.6x | 0.6x | +0.2x | — | — | — | — |
| Cash flow | |||||||||
| Op. cash flow | -219.3M | -713.7M | 690.0M | 724.5M | 5.0% | -978.7M | — | — | — |
| Cash flow margin | -0.9% | -2.7% | 2.9% | 3.3% | +4.2 pts | -3.0% | — | — | — |
| Investing CF | 51.3M | -211.6M | -225.5M | -137.1M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Financing CF | 156.1M | 1.1B | -433.8M | -693.5M | — | — | — | — | — |
No clear trend: not near its 52-week low, and not in a steady uptrend.
Calmer than 51% of stocks we rank over the past year (volatility 41% a year).
How this is worked out
The Price check reads only the chart, the price side of the Momentum score in words; it is not the MoatMap Score.
- Still falling: It set a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, after a deep fall.
- Finding a floor: It fell hard, but has set no new low for more than two weeks.
- Turning up: It has climbed off its low and is back above a rising 50-day average.
- In an uptrend: It is near its 52-week high and above its 200-day average.
- No clear trend (this stock): None of the above: no recent deep fall and no steady climb.
- No read yet: Not enough price history yet: it needs a year of trading.
In past US falls, waiting for Turning up cut the chance of another 20% drop from 42% to 33%. Returns were no better, and 33% of turns failed.
The exact rules
Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high, with the low set after the high. Finding a floor is the same fall with no new low in the last two weeks. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average, with the 50-day average above the 200-day, and within 15% of the high. No clear trend is everything else. No read yet is under 252 trading days of history, or missing data. A new state shows once it has held for three trading days.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn (the Turning up rule above) cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: how much the price moved day to day over the past year, scaled to a yearly figure (annualised volatility) and ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Technology, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of AVT are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| AVT | Avnet, Inc.(you) | $7.2B | 87 |
| NSIT | Insight Enterprises, Inc. | $5.2B | 83 |
| ARW | Arrow Electronics, Inc. | $10.7B | 82 |
| SNX | TD SYNNEX Corporation | $19.7B | 89 |
| CNXN | PC Connection, Inc. | $2.2B | 89 |
| SCSC | ScanSource, Inc. | $1.2B | 89 |
| CLMB | Climb Global Solutions, Inc. | $613M | 89 |
| PATH | UiPath, Inc. | $7.4B | 87 |
| QLYS | Qualys, Inc. | $7.5B | 88 |
| WEX | WEX Inc. | $6.7B | 87 |
Peer medians: ROE 5.7% · P/E 29.5x · Gross margin 52.2%
Company Deep Dive
A 10,000-word report: the business and its segments, what management promised on earnings calls and whether it delivered, the competition, and how things could turn out.