DLTR
Strong BuyPremium GrowerAI neutralDollar Tree, Inc. · Consumer Defensive · United States · $23.5B cap · $281.7M/day traded
$127.18 +2.9% · close 28 Oct · scored 29 Oct
StockRank up 2.0 since 28 Oct: Momentum up 3 after a 3% price rise.
Premium Grower: Strong business with the market behind it, priced at a premium.
As of 29 Oct 2026, MoatMap's StockRank for Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) is 86/100, ranked against 24,000+ stocks in 35 markets (Quality 72, Value 40, Momentum 72, each scored against its sector).
Does StockRank work? Each month we publish how every decile did, whichever way it went. See the record →
Dollar Tree runs more than 9,000 discount variety stores in the United States and Canada, now focused on its namesake banner after selling Family Dollar. Press coverage identifies it among the retailers winning inflation-weary bargain hunters, it has an active share buyback, and forward earnings estimates rose 2.1% over the past month. Its move to multi-price points is broadening what it can sell. The limits are real, however: margins are modest, a large share of goods is imported from Asia, and its lower-income shoppers are the ones most squeezed by high fuel and food prices. It is a reasonable business with a trade-down tailwind rather than a clearly mispriced compounder.
ABOUT DOLLAR TREE, INC.
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Dollar Tree, Inc. operates discount variety stores in North America under the Dollar Tree and Family Dollar banners, offering a wide assortment of merchandise at fixed price points. The company benefits from its unique everyday value proposition, strong brand loyalty, and efficient supply chain. Its extensive store footprint and ability to cater to cost-conscious consumers provide resilience in various economic conditions.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | CAGR | TTM | 2027E | 2028E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 15.4B | 16.8B | 17.6B | 19.4B | 8.0% | 20.1B | 20.7B | 21.9B | 6.3% |
| EPS | 7.24 | -4.55 | -14.05 | 6.23 | -4.9% | 8.21 | 8.59 | 8.57 | 17.3% |
| Shares | 221.2M | 217.9M | 215.1M | 198.5M | -10.3% | 187.6M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 10.1B | 7.4B | 7.8B | 7.1B | -11.3% | 7.7B | — | — | — |
| Equity | 8.8B | 7.3B | 4.0B | 3.8B | -24.6% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 1.6B | 2.7B | 2.9B | 2.5B | 16.2% | 3.1B | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | -1.3B | -2.1B | -1.7B | -728.5M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | -686.8M | -530.0M | -411.3M | -2.6B | — | — | — | — | — |
Above its 200-day average and 11% below its 52-week high.
Calmer than 51% of stocks we rank over the past year (41% a year).
How this is worked out
StockRank judges the business. The price check reads only the chart: it is the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn like this one cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: day-to-day price moves over the past year, as a yearly figure, ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Consumer Defensive, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of DLTR are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | StockRank | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DLTR | Dollar Tree, Inc.(you) | $23.5B | 86 | Strong Buy |
| DG | Dollar General Corporation | $29.3B | 66 | Buy |
| TGT | Target Corporation | $69.4B | 75 | Buy |
| BJ | BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. | $13.4B | 60 | Hold |
| OLLI | Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. | $5.2B | 50 | Hold |
| PSMT | PriceSmart, Inc. | $5.3B | 41 | Hold |
| COST | Costco Wholesale Corporation | $444.6B | 54 | Hold |
| BF-A | Brown-Forman Corporation | $13.8B | 77 | Buy |
| USFD | US Foods Holding Corp. | $21.8B | 63 | Hold |
| COKE | Coca-Cola Consolidated, Inc. | $13.5B | 72 | Buy |
Peer medians: ROE 10.0% · P/E 22.0x · Gross margin 34.5%
Company Deep Dive
Business segments breakdown, earnings transcript analysis, management credibility scoring, competitive landscape, and scenario modelling.