ERO
Strong BuyPremium GrowerAI neutralEro Copper Corp. · Basic Materials · Canada · $3.8B cap · $50.3M/day traded
$37.53 -0.2% · close 12 Oct · scored 14 Oct
Premium Grower: Strong business with the market behind it, priced at a premium.
Report expected 3 Nov: the next-year EPS estimate has risen 3.8% over the last 13 weeks.
As of 14 Oct 2026, MoatMap's StockRank for Ero Copper Corp. (ERO) is 95/100, ranked against 24,000+ stocks in 35 markets (Quality 77, Value 48, Momentum 75, each scored against its sector).
Does StockRank work? Each month we publish how every decile did, whichever way it went. See the record →
Ero Copper mines copper in Brazil at its Caraíba operations and the newer Tucumã mine, with a gold operation at Xavantina. Copper has hit record highs as Chilean output falls to a 19-year low, and second-quarter revenue of $284 million beat expectations, so the macro backdrop is clearly supportive. Still, this is a commodity producer whose earnings move with the copper price, the shares have already fallen sharply on a pullback from the record, and forward estimates were trimmed 1.5% last month.
ABOUT ERO COPPER CORP.
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Ero Copper Corp. is a clean copper producer with operations focused in Brazil, primarily engaged in the production and sale of copper concentrates. The company operates high-grade, low-cost underground mines with significant exploration upside, supported by modern processing infrastructure. It is a high-growth, low-cost copper mining company.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 426.4M | 427.5M | 470.3M | 785.8M | 22.6% | 1.0B | 1.3B | 1.4B | 35.1% |
| EPS | 1.12 | 0.99 | -0.66 | 2.54 | 31.4% | 2.95 | 4.17 | 4.92 | 39.2% |
| Shares | 92.2M | 102.7M | 103.6M | 104.2M | +13.0% | 104.3M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 429.0M | 445.8M | 620.1M | 632.3M | 13.8% | 573.4M | — | — | — |
| Equity | 538.6M | 804.3M | 587.1M | 935.5M | 20.2% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 143.4M | 163.1M | 145.4M | 395.1M | 40.2% | 470.1M | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | -425.8M | -308.2M | -335.4M | -278.6M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | 327.3M | 77.8M | 131.2M | -59.7M | — | — | — | — | — |
Above its 200-day average and 8% below its 52-week high.
Swung more than 78% of stocks we rank over the past year (63% a year).
How this is worked out
StockRank judges the business. The price check reads only the chart: it is the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn like this one cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: day-to-day price moves over the past year, as a yearly figure, ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Basic Materials, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of ERO are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | StockRank | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ERO | Ero Copper Corp.(you) | $3.8B | 95 | Strong Buy |
| CSC.AX | Capstone Copper Corp. | $7.9B | 85 | Strong Buy |
| ARG.TO | Amerigo Resources Ltd. | $999M | 98 | Strong Buy |
| HBM.TO | Hudbay Minerals Inc. | $11.9B | 85 | Strong Buy |
| TKO.TO | Trekor Metals Limited | $3.3B | 63 | Hold |
| TECK-A.TO | Teck Resources Limited | $32.3B | 95 | Strong Buy |
| III.TO | Imperial Metals Corporation | $1.1B | 76 | Buy |
| LUN.TO | Lundin Mining Corporation | $21.0B | 78 | Buy |
| FM.TO | First Quantum Minerals Ltd. | $26.7B | 63 | Hold |
| WDO.TO | Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd. | $3.6B | 95 | Strong Buy |
Peer medians: ROE -15.0% · P/E 16.2x · Gross margin 49.1%
Company Deep Dive
Business segments breakdown, earnings transcript analysis, management credibility scoring, competitive landscape, and scenario modelling.