ET
Hot AirAI neutralEnergy Transfer LP · Energy · United States · $70.4B cap · $173.3M/day traded
$18.92 -1.4% · close 6 Nov · scored 7 Nov
Hot Air: Strong momentum and nothing else: weak business, rich price.
After its 4 Nov results, analysts raised next year's EPS estimate 0.7%.
As of 7 Nov 2026, the MoatMap Score for Energy Transfer LP (ET) is 60/100, ranked against 25,000+ stocks in 38 markets (Quality 45, Value 49, Momentum 61, each scored against its sector).
Does the score work? Each tenth of the ranking, tracked monthly. See the record →
Energy Transfer owns one of the largest US pipeline, storage, NGL and export networks, mostly on fee-based contracts, and it sits directly in the path of higher US energy exports and gas demand from data centres. Free cash flow has recovered strongly after a weak fourth quarter, the units recently hit 52-week highs, and insiders have been buying. It is still a capital-intensive, leveraged partnership that grows by building and buying assets, and it has a history of governance and complex related-party structures. The macro backdrop is supportive, but the quality profile falls short of a compounder.
ABOUT ENERGY TRANSFER LP
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Energy Transfer LP is a major midstream energy company owning and operating a massive, diversified portfolio of energy assets across North America. The partnership controls a highly integrated, multi-basin pipeline network that connects major US shale plays to key domestic and export markets, generating stable, volume-driven cash flows. It is one of the largest and most diversified midstream energy partnerships in the United States.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 89.9B | 78.6B | 82.7B | 85.5B | -1.6% | 124.5B | 124.2B | 124.9B | 20.8% |
| EPS | 1.40 | 1.10 | 1.29 | 1.22 | -4.5% | 1.51 | 1.71 | 1.71 | 18.5% |
| Shares | 3.1B | 3.4B | 3.4B | 3.4B | +11.2% | 3.4B | — | — | — |
| Debt | 49.1B | 53.2B | 60.6B | 70.1B | 12.6% | 70.5B | — | — | — |
| Equity | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 9.1B | 9.6B | 11.5B | 10.1B | 3.9% | 10.1B | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | -4.0B | -4.3B | -5.9B | -8.4B | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | -5.1B | -5.3B | -5.5B | -816.0M | — | — | — | — | — |
Above its 200-day average and 13% below its 52-week high.
Calmer than 94% of stocks we rank over the past year (volatility 18% a year).
How this is worked out
The MoatMap Score weighs the business, its price and its trend. The price check reads only the chart: the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn (the Turning up rule above) cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: how much the price moved day to day over the past year, scaled to a yearly figure (annualised volatility) and ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Energy, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of ET are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| ET | Energy Transfer LP(you) | $70.4B | 60 |
| EPD | Enterprise Products Partners L.P. | $80.1B | 51 |
| LNG | Cheniere Energy, Inc. | $61.7B | 48 |
| TRGP | Targa Resources Corp. | $64.8B | 43 |
| OKE | ONEOK, Inc. | $60.4B | 44 |
| KMI | Kinder Morgan, Inc. | $76.7B | 38 |
| CQP | Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. | $32.0B | 68 |
| 601872.SS | China Merchants Energy Shipping Co., Ltd. | $20.1B | 59 |
| VG | Venture Global, Inc. | $35.0B | 45 |
| PPL-PG.TO | Pembina Pipeline Corporation | $28.7B | 72 |
Peer medians: ROE 8.7% · P/E 13.2x · Gross margin 34.9%
Company Deep Dive
A 10,000-word report: the business and its segments, what management promised on earnings calls and whether it delivered, the competition, and how things could turn out.