FWRG
Strong SellSinkerFirst Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. · Consumer Cyclical · United States · $672M cap · $17.5M/day traded
$11.09 +0.3% · close 27 Oct · scored 28 Oct
Sinker: Weak, expensive and falling. Nothing here to keep it afloat.
Report expected 3 Nov: the next-year EPS estimate has fallen 11.0% over the last 14 weeks.
As of 28 Oct 2026, MoatMap's StockRank for First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) is 8/100, ranked against 24,000+ stocks in 35 markets (Quality 21, Value 35, Momentum 24, each scored against its sector).
Does StockRank work? Each month we publish how every decile did, whichever way it went. See the record →
ABOUT FIRST WATCH RESTAURANT GROUP, INC.
Read
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. operates and franchises daytime-only casual dining restaurants under the 'First Watch' brand across the United States. The company is known for its breakfast, brunch, and lunch offerings, emphasizing fresh, high-quality ingredients and made-to-order dishes. Its differentiated focus on daytime dining and strong brand loyalty contribute to its market position in the restaurant industry.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 730.2M | 891.6M | 1.0B | 1.2B | 18.7% | 1.3B | 1.4B | 1.6B | 12.6% |
| EPS | 0.12 | 0.43 | 0.31 | 0.32 | 38.7% | 0.28 | 0.17 | 0.26 | -10.3% |
| Shares | 59.2M | 59.9M | 60.7M | 61.1M | +3.2% | 61.7M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 507.4M | 607.0M | 809.6M | 1.0B | 25.7% | 1.1B | — | — | — |
| Equity | 523.1M | 561.3M | 595.4M | 626.3M | 6.2% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 62.9M | 95.3M | 115.7M | 125.9M | 26.0% | 128.2M | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | -63.1M | -123.4M | -206.7M | -213.8M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | -2.0M | 28.1M | 74.3M | 75.8M | — | — | — | — | — |
No new 52-week low for 4 weeks, 12% above that low, but not back above a rising 50-day average.
Swung more than 68% of stocks we rank over the past year (54% a year).
How this is worked out
StockRank judges the business. The price check reads only the chart: it is the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn like this one cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: day-to-day price moves over the past year, as a yearly figure, ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Consumer Cyclical, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of FWRG are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | StockRank | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FWRG | First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.(you) | $672M | 8 | Strong Sell |
| KRUS | Kura Sushi USA, Inc. | $382M | 3 | Strong Sell |
| SG | Sweetgreen, Inc. | $1.2B | 20 | Sell |
| PTLO | Portillo's Inc. | $305M | 17 | Strong Sell |
| BRCB | Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. | $218M | 6 | Strong Sell |
| PZZA | Papa John's International, Inc. | $596M | 32 | Sell |
| CNNE | Cannae Holdings, Inc. | $707M | 34 | Sell |
| BH-A | Biglari Holdings Inc. | $1.2B | 27 | Sell |
| SHAK | Shake Shack Inc. | $2.8B | 18 | Strong Sell |
| WEN | The Wendy's Company | $1.2B | 41 | Hold |
Peer medians: ROE 8.5% · P/E 19.2x · Gross margin 37.4%
Company Deep Dive
Business segments breakdown, earnings transcript analysis, management credibility scoring, competitive landscape, and scenario modelling.