GO
HoldHot AirGrocery Outlet Holding Corp. · Consumer Defensive · United States · $1.3B cap · $26.8M/day traded
$12.57 -2.4% · close 28 Oct · scored 29 Oct
Hot Air: Rising on momentum alone: weak business, rich price.
Report expected 3 Nov: the next-year EPS estimate has risen 6.8% over the last 14 weeks.
As of 29 Oct 2026, MoatMap's StockRank for Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) is 40/100, ranked against 24,000+ stocks in 35 markets (Quality 24, Value 30, Momentum 77, each scored against its sector).
Does StockRank work? Each month we publish how every decile did, whichever way it went. See the record →
ABOUT GROCERY OUTLET HOLDING CORP.
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Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. operates a chain of extreme value grocery stores across the U.S., offering branded and private-label products at steep discounts. Its competitive moat stems from a unique opportunistic buying model, sourcing excess inventory and closeouts directly from manufacturers. This positions it as a distinctive deep-discount retailer in the consumer defensive sector.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2027E | 2028E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | 3.6B | 4.0B | 4.4B | 4.7B | 9.4% | 4.7B | 4.7B | 4.9B | 1.6% |
| EPS | 0.65 | 0.67 | 0.80 | 0.40 | -2.30 | -14.9% | -3.88 | — | — | — |
| Shares | — | 97.7M | 99.2M | 97.3M | 98.2M | +0.5% | 99.1M | — | — | — |
| Debt | — | 1.4B | 1.4B | 1.7B | 1.8B | 8.5% | 1.9B | — | — | — |
| Equity | — | 1.1B | 1.2B | 1.2B | 983.7M | -4.0% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | — | 185.5M | 303.4M | 112.0M | 222.1M | 6.2% | 185.3M | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | — | -149.9M | -194.2M | -274.0M | -229.7M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | — | -72.9M | -97.0M | 109.9M | 14.3M | — | — | — | — | — |
122% above its 52-week low and back above a rising 50-day average.
Swung more than 68% of stocks we rank over the past year (54% a year).
How this is worked out
StockRank judges the business. The price check reads only the chart: it is the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn like this one cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: day-to-day price moves over the past year, as a yearly figure, ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Consumer Defensive, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of GO are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | StockRank | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GO | Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.(you) | $1.3B | 40 | Hold |
| YSWY | Yesway, Inc. | $768M | 37 | Hold |
| WMK | Weis Markets, Inc. | $1.8B | 55 | Hold |
| NGVC | Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. | $725M | 60 | Hold |
| IMKTA | Ingles Markets, Incorporated | $1.7B | 67 | Buy |
| ACI | Albertsons Companies, Inc. | $6.8B | 29 | Sell |
| SFM | Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. | $6.2B | 53 | Hold |
| DNUT | Krispy Kreme, Inc. | $489M | 15 | Strong Sell |
| VLGEA | Village Super Market, Inc. | $668M | 73 | Buy |
| KR | The Kroger Co. | $39.4B | 50 | Hold |
Peer medians: ROE 10.0% · P/E 21.8x · Gross margin 35.0%
Company Deep Dive
Business segments breakdown, earnings transcript analysis, management credibility scoring, competitive landscape, and scenario modelling.