GPK
SellBargain BinGraphic Packaging Holding Company · Consumer Cyclical · United States · $2.6B cap · $65.2M/day traded
$8.77 -3.0% · close 23 Oct · scored 24 Oct
Bargain Bin: Looks like a bargain; the quality and the trend say why it is in the bin.
Report expected 3 Nov: the next-year EPS estimate has fallen 16.0% over the last 14 weeks, down 3 weeks running.
As of 24 Oct 2026, MoatMap's StockRank for Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) is 34/100, ranked against 24,000+ stocks in 35 markets (Quality 29, Value 70, Momentum 25, each scored against its sector).
Does StockRank work? Each month we publish how every decile did, whichever way it went. See the record →
ABOUT GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING COMPANY
Read
Graphic Packaging Holding Company is a leading provider of paper-based packaging solutions for food, beverage, and other consumer products. It benefits from extensive manufacturing capabilities, strong design and innovation expertise, and long-term relationships with major global consumer brands. GPK is a large, vertically integrated packaging company, offering sustainable packaging solutions.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 9.4B | 9.4B | 8.8B | 8.6B | -3.0% | 8.6B | 8.6B | 8.8B | 1.1% |
| EPS | 1.69 | 2.35 | 2.16 | 1.48 | -4.3% | 0.66 | 0.67 | 0.97 | -18.9% |
| Shares | 307.1M | 306.1M | 300.2M | 295.1M | -3.9% | 296.1M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 5.5B | 5.4B | 5.2B | 5.6B | 0.8% | 5.7B | — | — | — |
| Equity | 2.1B | 2.8B | 3.0B | 3.3B | 15.8% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 1.1B | 1.1B | 840.0M | 841.0M | -8.3% | 793.0M | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | -435.0M | -1.0B | -342.0M | -732.0M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | -666.0M | -106.0M | -489.0M | -18.0M | — | — | — | — | — |
Made a new 52-week low 1 trading day ago, 49% below its 52-week high. The fall has not stopped yet.
Swung more than 59% of stocks we rank over the past year (47% a year).
How this is worked out
StockRank judges the business. The price check reads only the chart: it is the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn like this one cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: day-to-day price moves over the past year, as a yearly figure, ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Consumer Cyclical, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of GPK are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | StockRank | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPK | Graphic Packaging Holding Company(you) | $2.6B | 34 | Sell |
| SLGN | Silgan Holdings Inc. | $4.2B | 54 | Hold |
| OI | O-I Glass, Inc. | $994M | 17 | Strong Sell |
| IPC.L | International Paper Company | $17.6B | 37 | Hold |
| TRS | TriMas Corporation | $1.4B | 63 | Hold |
| SON | Sonoco Products Company | $5.0B | 68 | Buy |
| GEF | Greif, Inc. | $4.7B | 71 | Buy |
| REYN | Reynolds Consumer Products Inc. | $4.9B | 74 | Buy |
| BALL | Ball Corporation | $17.1B | 54 | Hold |
| PACK | Ranpak Holdings Corp. | $316M | 17 | Strong Sell |
Peer medians: ROE 8.5% · P/E 18.9x · Gross margin 37.4%
Company Deep Dive
Business segments breakdown, earnings transcript analysis, management credibility scoring, competitive landscape, and scenario modelling.