HOG
BuySecond WindAI neutralHarley-Davidson, Inc. · Consumer Cyclical · United States · $3.0B cap · $60.9M/day traded
$29.52 +0.3% · close 28 Oct · scored 28 Oct
Second Wind: Cheap and rising again, but the business does not yet earn the optimism.
Report expected 29 Oct: the next-year EPS estimate has been little changed over the last 14 weeks.
As of 28 Oct 2026, MoatMap's StockRank for Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) is 72/100, ranked against 24,000+ stocks in 35 markets (Quality 46, Value 57, Momentum 64, each scored against its sector).
Does StockRank work? Each month we publish how every decile did, whichever way it went. See the record →
Harley-Davidson has one of the best-known brands in the world, insiders have been buying shares, a buyback is active and forward earnings estimates rose about 1.1% last month. But the business has been shrinking in its core US market, its customer base is ageing, and tariffs have made it a target in trade disputes. High fuel costs and squeezed lower- and middle-income consumers are a headwind for big discretionary purchases like motorcycles. This is closer to a recovery story than a steady compounder.
ABOUT HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC.
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Harley-Davidson, Inc. manufactures and sells heavyweight motorcycles, parts, accessories, and offers related financial services globally. The company's significant competitive moat is its iconic global brand and intensely loyal customer base, cultivated over a century of heritage and lifestyle association. Harley-Davidson is a niche market leader for premium cruisers, currently executing a strategic plan to revitalize its core business and expand into electric motorcycle segments.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5.8B | 5.8B | 5.2B | 4.5B | -8.1% | 4.2B | 4.7B | 4.9B | 4.8% |
| EPS | 5.01 | 4.96 | 3.46 | 2.82 | -17.4% | 1.94 | — | — | — |
| Shares | 145.9M | 136.3M | 124.3M | 111.7M | -23.4% | 104.1M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 7.0B | 7.2B | 7.0B | 3.1B | -24.0% | 2.3B | — | — | — |
| Equity | 2.9B | 3.3B | 3.2B | 3.1B | 2.7% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 548.5M | 754.9M | 1.1B | 568.9M | 1.2% | — | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | -773.0M | -512.3M | -383.3M | 3.8B | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | -202.0M | -174.6M | -572.3M | -3.0B | — | — | — | — | — |
Above its 200-day average and 1% below its 52-week high.
Calmer than 56% of stocks we rank over the past year (39% a year).
How this is worked out
StockRank judges the business. The price check reads only the chart: it is the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn like this one cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: day-to-day price moves over the past year, as a yearly figure, ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Consumer Cyclical, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of HOG are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | StockRank | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOG | Harley-Davidson, Inc.(you) | $3.0B | 72 | Buy |
| LCII | LCI Industries | $2.1B | 62 | Hold |
| THO | THOR Industries, Inc. | $3.6B | 47 | Hold |
| BC | Brunswick Corporation | $4.3B | 44 | Hold |
| WGO | Winnebago Industries, Inc. | $815M | 62 | Hold |
| PII | Polaris Inc. | $3.1B | 36 | Hold |
| PATK | Patrick Industries, Inc. | $2.2B | 36 | Hold |
| MBUU | Malibu Boats, Inc. | $467M | 45 | Hold |
| MCFT | MasterCraft Boat Holdings, Inc. | $479M | 28 | Sell |
| SHOO | Steven Madden, Ltd. | $3.2B | 69 | Buy |
Peer medians: ROE 8.5% · P/E 19.9x · Gross margin 37.4%
Company Deep Dive
Business segments breakdown, earnings transcript analysis, management credibility scoring, competitive landscape, and scenario modelling.