LILA
Hot AirAI neutralLiberty Latin America Ltd. · Communication Services · Bermuda · $1.6B cap · $3.8M/day traded
$9.84 +1.1% · close 13 Nov · scored 14 Nov
Hot Air: Strong momentum and nothing else: weak business, rich price.
As of 14 Nov 2026, the MoatMap Score for Liberty Latin America Ltd. (LILA) is 64/100, ranked against 25,000+ stocks in 38 markets (Quality 42, Value 49, Momentum 70, each scored against its sector).
Does the score work? Each tenth of the ranking, tracked monthly. See the record →
Liberty Latin America provides cable, broadband and mobile services across Puerto Rico, the Caribbean and Central America. It has a buyback running and signed a 10-year technology deal with Amdocs, but it carries heavy debt, recently raised $200 million of new financing for its Puerto Rico subsidiaries, and has struggled with subscriber losses in Puerto Rico. Telecom is capital-intensive and competitive, which falls short of an asset-light compounder.
ABOUT LIBERTY LATIN AMERICA LTD.
Read
Liberty Latin America Ltd. is a leading telecommunications company operating across Latin America and the Caribbean, offering mobile, broadband, and pay-TV services. The company's competitive moat is anchored by its extensive subsea and terrestrial fiber-optic network infrastructure, which is difficult and capital-intensive to replicate. It operates as a dominant regional consolidator, leveraging scale to deliver integrated communications solutions to residential and business customers.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income and shares | |||||||||
| Revenue | 4.8B | 4.5B | 4.4B | 4.4B | -2.6% | 4.5B | 4.5B | 4.6B | 2.0% |
| Net margin | -3.5% | -1.6% | -15.5% | -13.8% | -10.3 pts | — | — | — | — |
| EPS | -4.40 | -1.90 | -18.06 | -16.19 | — | -0.93 | — | — | — |
| Share count | 37.8M | 37.8M | 37.8M | 37.8M | 0.0% | 36.7M | — | — | — |
| Balance sheet | |||||||||
| Debt | 8.0B | 8.3B | 8.2B | 8.4B | 1.7% | 9.0B | — | — | — |
| Equity | 1.9B | 1.8B | 1.1B | 555.6M | -33.8% | — | — | — | — |
| Debt/equity | 4.1x | 4.7x | 7.5x | 15.1x | +11.0x | — | — | — | — |
| Cash flow | |||||||||
| Op. cash flow | 868.8M | 897.0M | 756.3M | 805.9M | -2.5% | 905.9M | — | — | — |
| Cash flow margin | 18.1% | 19.9% | 17.0% | 18.1% | 0.0 pts | 20.3% | — | — | — |
| Investing CF | -1.1B | -615.8M | -688.5M | -592.3M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Financing CF | -29.2M | -62.4M | -386.4M | -43.6M | — | — | — | — | — |
Above its 200-day average and 5% below its 52-week high.
Swung more than 53% of stocks we rank over the past year (volatility 44% a year).
How this is worked out
The Price check reads only the chart, the price side of the Momentum score in words; it is not the MoatMap Score.
- Still falling: It set a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, after a deep fall.
- Finding a floor: It fell hard, but has set no new low for more than two weeks.
- Turning up: It has climbed off its low and is back above a rising 50-day average.
- In an uptrend (this stock): It is near its 52-week high and above its 200-day average.
- No clear trend: None of the above: no recent deep fall and no steady climb.
- No read yet: Not enough price history yet: it needs a year of trading.
In past US falls, waiting for Turning up cut the chance of another 20% drop from 42% to 33%. Returns were no better, and 33% of turns failed.
The exact rules
Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high, with the low set after the high. Finding a floor is the same fall with no new low in the last two weeks. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average, with the 50-day average above the 200-day, and within 15% of the high. No clear trend is everything else. No read yet is under 252 trading days of history, or missing data. A new state shows once it has held for three trading days.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn (the Turning up rule above) cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: how much the price moved day to day over the past year, scaled to a yearly figure (annualised volatility) and ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Communication Services, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of LILA are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| LILA | Liberty Latin America Ltd.(you) | $1.6B | 64 |
| LBTYA | Liberty Global Ltd. | $2.7B | 28 |
Peer medians: ROE -20.3% · Gross margin 67.5%
Company Deep Dive
A 10,000-word report: the business and its segments, what management promised on earnings calls and whether it delivered, the competition, and how things could turn out.