MOMO
Strong BuyUnloved QualityAI neutralHello Group Inc. · Communication Services · China · $708M cap · $5.1M/day traded
$4.75 +0.6% · close 12 Oct · scored 14 Oct
StockRank down 2.4 since 13 Oct.
Unloved Quality: Strong and cheap; the market has not turned yet.
Read our full research report on MOMO (Apr 2026), freeAs of 14 Oct 2026, MoatMap's StockRank for Hello Group Inc. (MOMO) is 83/100, ranked against 24,000+ stocks in 35 markets (Quality 70, Value 83, Momentum 27, each scored against its sector).
Does StockRank work? Each month we publish how every decile did, whichever way it went. See the record →
Hello Group runs the Momo and Tantan social and live-streaming apps in China and is growing fast overseas, where revenue rose 52% in the second quarter. The shares trade at a low multiple of earnings with a large net cash balance. The domestic business continues to shrink, forward earnings estimates were cut about 4% over the past month, and the stock fell after each of its last two results.
ABOUT HELLO GROUP INC.
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Hello Group Inc. operates leading mobile social networking and entertainment platforms in China, including Momo and Tantan, which facilitate social interaction, live video streaming, and online dating. The company benefits from significant network effects and an established, large user base, creating a strong competitive moat within China's dynamic social media landscape. Hello Group monetizes its platforms primarily through virtual gifting, premium subscriptions, and advertising.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.9B | 1.8B | 1.6B | 1.6B | -6.6% | 1.5B | 1.5B | 1.5B | -0.9% |
| EPS | 3.99 | 5.41 | 2.57 | 2.04 | -20.0% | 0.97 | 2.23 | 2.42 | 8.7% |
| Shares | 107.6M | 107.6M | 107.6M | 107.6M | 0.0% | 103.5M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 414.2M | 342.1M | 685.6M | 19.3M | -64.0% | 10.2M | — | — | — |
| Equity | 1.6B | 1.8B | 1.7B | 1.6B | 0.3% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 183.6M | 340.8M | 245.4M | 177.1M | -1.2% | 223.6M | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | 256.8M | 361.1M | -83.6M | 24.6M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | -513.7M | -254.4M | 35.3M | -814.0M | — | — | — | — | — |
Made a new 52-week low 4 trading days ago, 31% below its 52-week high. The fall has not stopped yet.
Calmer than 75% of stocks we rank over the past year (29% a year).
How this is worked out
StockRank judges the business. The price check reads only the chart: it is the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn like this one cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: day-to-day price moves over the past year, as a yearly figure, ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Communication Services, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of MOMO are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | StockRank | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOMO | Hello Group Inc.(you) | $708M | 83 | Strong Buy |
| 1896.HK | Maoyan Entertainment | $597M | 67 | Buy |
| WB | Weibo Corporation | $1.6B | 74 | Buy |
| 3700.HK | Inkeverse Group Limited | $233M | 66 | Buy |
| 9899.HK | NetEase Cloud Music Inc. | $2.2B | 60 | Hold |
| 2518.HK | Autohome Inc. | $2.4B | 61 | Hold |
| BZ | Kanzhun Limited | $6.3B | 87 | Strong Buy |
| 1980.HK | Tian Ge Interactive Holdings Limited | $86M | 72 | Buy |
| 1357.HK | Meitu, Inc. | $2.1B | 51 | Hold |
| 2390.HK | Zhihu Inc. | $291M | 35 | Hold |
Peer medians: ROE 3.8% · P/E 20.0x · Gross margin 34.9%
Company Deep Dive
Read the full research report: business segments breakdown, earnings transcripts review, management credibility analysis, competitive landscape, and scenarios.