OPL.WA
Hot AirOrange Polska S.A. · Communication Services · Poland · $5.3B cap · $6.0M/day traded
PLN 16.70 +0.7% · close 12 Nov · scored 13 Nov
Score up 1.5 since 12 Nov.
Hot Air: Strong momentum and nothing else: weak business, rich price.
As of 13 Nov 2026, the MoatMap Score for Orange Polska S.A. (OPL.WA) is 61/100, ranked against 25,000+ stocks in 38 markets (Quality 47, Value 45, Momentum 64, each scored against its sector).
Does the score work? Each tenth of the ranking, tracked monthly. See the record →
ABOUT ORANGE POLSKA S.A.
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Orange Polska S.A. is the leading telecommunications provider in Poland, offering mobile, fixed-line broadband, data transmission, and IT services. The company's competitive moat is its ownership of the country's most extensive fiber-optic infrastructure. It operates as an integrated telecom giant with a strong focus on convergent services and corporate ICT solutions.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (PLN)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 12.5B | 13.0B | 12.7B | 13.1B | 1.7% | 13.9B | 13.8B | 14.3B | 4.4% |
| EPS (PLN) | 0.55 | 0.62 | 0.70 | 0.70 | 8.1% | 0.75 | 0.78 | 0.85 | 10.6% |
| Shares | 1.3B | 1.3B | 1.3B | 1.3B | 0.0% | 1.3B | — | — | — |
| Debt | 7.7B | 7.2B | 7.1B | 7.3B | -2.1% | 7.5B | — | — | — |
| Equity | 13.5B | 13.4B | 13.6B | 13.5B | 0.2% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 2.9B | 3.5B | 3.4B | 3.6B | 7.0% | 3.6B | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | -2.0B | -2.0B | -2.2B | -2.6B | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | -850.0M | -1.6B | -1.5B | -1.0B | — | — | — | — | — |
Above its 200-day average and 2% below its 52-week high.
Calmer than 69% of stocks we rank over the past year (volatility 32% a year).
How this is worked out
The Price check reads only the chart, the price side of the Momentum score in words; it is not the MoatMap Score.
- Still falling: It set a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, after a deep fall.
- Finding a floor: It fell hard, but has set no new low for more than two weeks.
- Turning up: It has climbed off its low and is back above a rising 50-day average.
- In an uptrend (this stock): It is near its 52-week high and above its 200-day average.
- No clear trend: None of the above: no recent deep fall and no steady climb.
- No read yet: Not enough price history yet: it needs a year of trading.
In past US falls, waiting for Turning up cut the chance of another 20% drop from 42% to 33%. Returns were no better, and 33% of turns failed.
The exact rules
Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high, with the low set after the high. Finding a floor is the same fall with no new low in the last two weeks. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average, with the 50-day average above the 200-day, and within 15% of the high. No clear trend is everything else. No read yet is under 252 trading days of history, or missing data. A new state shows once it has held for three trading days.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn (the Turning up rule above) cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: how much the price moved day to day over the past year, scaled to a yearly figure (annualised volatility) and ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Communication Services, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of OPL.WA are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPL.WA | Orange Polska S.A.(you) | $5.3B | 61 |
| WAS.WA | Wasko S.A. | $144M | 94 |
| CDR.WA | CD Projekt Red S.A. | $6.9B | 42 |
| ETL.WA | Eurotel S.A. | $27M | 84 |
| CPS.WA | Cyfrowy Polsat S.A. | $2.5B | 35 |
| DIG.WA | Digital Network SA | $352M | 60 |
| WPL.WA | Wirtualna Polska Holding S.A. | $421M | 56 |
| PLW.WA | PlayWay S.A. | $422M | 87 |
| BLO.WA | Bloober Team SA | $112M | 60 |
| ART.WA | Artifex Mundi S.A. | $59M | 58 |
Peer medians: ROE 8.8% · P/E 11.3x · Gross margin 59.0%
Company Deep Dive
A 10,000-word report: the business and its segments, what management promised on earnings calls and whether it delivered, the competition, and how things could turn out.