SIRI
BuySecond WindAI neutralSirius XM Holdings Inc. · Communication Services · United States · $8.9B cap · $119.5M/day traded
$26.61 +0.4% · close 12 Oct · scored 14 Oct
StockRank down 2.9 since 13 Oct.
Second Wind: Cheap and rising again, but the business does not yet earn the optimism.
Report expected 29 Oct: the next-year EPS estimate has fallen 1.2% over the last 13 weeks.
As of 14 Oct 2026, MoatMap's StockRank for Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (SIRI) is 78/100, ranked against 24,000+ stocks in 35 markets (Quality 44, Value 70, Momentum 60, each scored against its sector).
Does StockRank work? Each month we publish how every decile did, whichever way it went. See the record →
Sirius XM generates heavy free cash flow from its satellite radio subscriptions and returns it through dividends and buybacks (0.6% of shares in 90 days), and Deutsche Bank recently upgraded the stock. The core problem is structural: its self-pay subscriber base and revenue have been shrinking as listeners move to streaming apps, and the company carries a lot of debt. Cheapness alone does not overcome a declining audience.
ABOUT SIRIUS XM HOLDINGS INC.
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Sirius XM Holdings Inc. provides satellite radio services offering a wide array of commercial-free music, talk, news, and entertainment across North America, and also owns Pandora. Its exclusive content, vast subscriber base, and unique position as the sole satellite radio provider create a significant competitive moat. Sirius XM is a dominant player in subscription audio entertainment in North America.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 9.0B | 9.0B | 8.7B | 8.6B | -1.7% | 8.6B | 8.6B | 8.7B | 0.9% |
| EPS | 3.10 | 3.30 | -6.14 | 2.38 | -8.4% | 2.50 | 3.18 | 3.51 | 21.4% |
| Shares | 389.1M | 384.3M | 339.2M | 335.0M | -13.9% | 337.1M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 9.8B | 11.2B | 10.4B | 9.7B | -0.4% | 9.7B | — | — | — |
| Equity | -3.4B | 10.1B | 11.1B | 11.6B | 7.1% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 2.0B | 1.8B | 1.7B | 1.9B | -1.4% | 2.1B | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | -493.0M | -696.0M | -970.0M | -747.0M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | -1.7B | -1.2B | -916.0M | -1.2B | — | — | — | — | — |
No clear trend: not near its 52-week low, and not in a steady uptrend.
Calmer than 64% of stocks we rank over the past year (34% a year).
How this is worked out
StockRank judges the business. The price check reads only the chart: it is the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn like this one cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: day-to-day price moves over the past year, as a yearly figure, ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Communication Services, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of SIRI are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | StockRank | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SIRI | Sirius XM Holdings Inc.(you) | $8.9B | 78 | Buy |
| CNK | Cinemark Holdings, Inc. | $4.1B | 78 | Buy |
| ROKU | Roku, Inc. | $18.3B | 82 | Strong Buy |
| NWS.AX | News Corporation | $16.7B | 72 | Buy |
| FOX | Fox Corporation | $24.0B | 77 | Buy |
| VSNT | Versant Media Group, Inc. | $4.6B | 86 | Strong Buy |
| MSGE | Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. | $3.7B | 57 | Hold |
| WMG | Warner Music Group Corp. | $14.2B | 46 | Hold |
| MSGS | Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. | $9.5B | 29 | Sell |
| AMC | AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. | $2.6B | 47 | Hold |
Peer medians: ROE 6.8% · P/E 18.0x · Gross margin 57.0%
Company Deep Dive
Business segments breakdown, earnings transcript analysis, management credibility scoring, competitive landscape, and scenario modelling.