SOBO
Fallen FavouriteSouth Bow Corporation · Energy · Canada · $7.4B cap · $26.0M/day traded
$31.08 -1.7% · close 6 Nov · scored 7 Nov
Score down 1.1 since 6 Nov.
Fallen Favourite: A good business, still expensive, and its momentum is weak.
After its 4 Nov results, analysts left next year's EPS estimate little changed.
As of 7 Nov 2026, the MoatMap Score for South Bow Corporation (SOBO) is 40/100, ranked against 25,000+ stocks in 38 markets (Quality 50, Value 38, Momentum 45, each scored against its sector).
Does the score work? Each tenth of the ranking, tracked monthly. See the record →
ABOUT SOUTH BOW CORPORATION
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South Bow Corporation operates as an energy infrastructure company. It operates through three segments: Keystone Pipeline System, Marketing, and Intra-Alberta & Other.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.0B | 2.1B | 2.0B | -0.5% | 2.0B | 2.0B | 2.0B | 1.6% |
| EPS | 2.13 | 1.52 | 1.52 | -15.5% | 2.23 | 1.45 | 1.50 | -0.8% |
| Shares | 207.6M | 208.0M | 208.3M | +0.3% | 208.7M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 6.0B | 5.7B | 5.8B | -1.5% | 5.4B | — | — | — |
| Equity | 2.8B | 2.6B | 2.7B | -2.3% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 779.0M | 529.0M | 717.0M | -4.1% | 916.0M | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | 62.0M | -80.0M | -175.0M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | -577.0M | -307.0M | -411.0M | — | — | — | — | — |
Above its 200-day average and 19% below its 52-week high.
The Momentum score still reads 45: it weighs six months of price and earnings revisions, so it trails a turn like this.
Calmer than 85% of stocks we rank over the past year (volatility 24% a year).
How this is worked out
The MoatMap Score weighs the business, its price and its trend. The price check reads only the chart: the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn (the Turning up rule above) cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: how much the price moved day to day over the past year, scaled to a yearly figure (annualised volatility) and ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Energy, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of SOBO are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| SOBO | South Bow Corporation(you) | $7.4B | 40 |
| GEI.TO | Gibson Energy Inc. | $4.1B | 44 |
| ALA.TO | AltaGas Ltd. | $11.8B | 30 |
| KEY.TO | Keyera Corp. | $13.2B | 32 |
| TPZ.TO | Topaz Energy Corp. | $3.4B | 46 |
| PPL.TO | Pembina Pipeline Corporation | $29.3B | 38 |
| TRP | TC Energy Corporation | $65.0B | 30 |
| TWM.TO | Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure Ltd. | $372M | 45 |
| ENB | Enbridge Inc. | $107.3B | 21 |
| SCR.TO | Strathcona Resources Ltd. | $6.7B | 43 |
Peer medians: ROE 4.9% · P/E 18.4x · Gross margin 52.4%
Company Deep Dive
A 10,000-word report: the business and its segments, what management promised on earnings calls and whether it delivered, the competition, and how things could turn out.