SVA.TO
SinkerSernova Biotherapeutics Inc · Healthcare · Canada · $30M cap · $6K/day traded
CAD 0.105 -4.5% · close 12 Nov · scored 13 Nov
Sinker: Weak business, rich price and weak momentum. Nothing here to keep it afloat.
As of 13 Nov 2026, the MoatMap Score for Sernova Biotherapeutics Inc (SVA.TO) is 6/100, ranked against 25,000+ stocks in 38 markets (Quality 15, Value 37, Momentum 23, each scored against its sector).
Does the score work? Each tenth of the ranking, tracked monthly. See the record →
ABOUT SERNOVA BIOTHERAPEUTICS INC
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Sernova Biotherapeutics Inc operates as a clinical-stage biotechnology company in Canada. The company develops regenerative medicine therapeutics comprising proprietary Cell Pouch, a bio-hybrid organ system to replicate natural body functions.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (CAD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | 2.5M | — |
| EPS (CAD) | -0.09 | -0.13 | -0.10 | -0.05 | — | 0.01 | -0.03 | -0.03 | — |
| Shares | 303.3M | 303.3M | 325.3M | 332.9M | +9.7% | 377.6M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 0.3M | 0.1M | 0.6M | 4.8M | 158.6% | 2.6M | — | — | — |
| Equity | 47.6M | 12.5M | -13.0M | -25.1M | -73.7% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | -14.4M | -30.3M | -18.9M | -10.9M | — | -4.5M | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | -46.3M | 34.8M | 11.1M | 25.0K | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | 36.7M | 0.5M | 5.1M | 5.1M | — | — | — | — | — |
No new 52-week low for 6 weeks, 17% above that low, but not back above a rising 50-day average.
Swung more than 94% of stocks we rank over the past year (volatility 95% a year).
How this is worked out
The Price check reads only the chart, the price side of the Momentum score in words; it is not the MoatMap Score.
- Still falling: It set a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, after a deep fall.
- Finding a floor (this stock): It fell hard, but has set no new low for more than two weeks.
- Turning up: It has climbed off its low and is back above a rising 50-day average.
- In an uptrend: It is near its 52-week high and above its 200-day average.
- No clear trend: None of the above: no recent deep fall and no steady climb.
- No read yet: Not enough price history yet: it needs a year of trading.
In past US falls, waiting for Turning up cut the chance of another 20% drop from 42% to 33%. Returns were no better, and 33% of turns failed.
The exact rules
Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high, with the low set after the high. Finding a floor is the same fall with no new low in the last two weeks. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average, with the 50-day average above the 200-day, and within 15% of the high. No clear trend is everything else. No read yet is under 252 trading days of history, or missing data. A new state shows once it has held for three trading days.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn (the Turning up rule above) cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: how much the price moved day to day over the past year, scaled to a yearly figure (annualised volatility) and ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Healthcare, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of SVA.TO are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| SVA.TO | Sernova Biotherapeutics Inc(you) | $30M | 6 |
| TELI.CN | Telescope Innovations Corp. | $31M | 7 |
| SONA.CN | Sona Nanotech Inc. | $29M | 4 |
| BCT.TO | BriaCell Therapeutics Corp. | $30M | 11 |
| MDNA.TO | Medicenna Therapeutics Corp. | $28M | 2 |
| DTC.CN | Defence Therapeutics Inc. | $27M | 1 |
| EDSA | Edesa Biotech, Inc. | $51M | 2 |
| OBI.L | Ondine Biomedical Inc. | $73M | 5 |
| TTI.V | Thiogenesis Therapeutics, Corp. | $31M | 25 |
| PMN | ProMIS Neurosciences, Inc. | $75M | 3 |
Peer medians: ROE -29.3% · P/E 19.5x · Gross margin 51.7%
Company Deep Dive
A 10,000-word report: the business and its segments, what management promised on earnings calls and whether it delivered, the competition, and how things could turn out.