TAL
Unloved QualityAI neutralTAL Education Group · Consumer Defensive · China · $5.6B cap · $54.2M/day traded
$9.95 -1.2% · close 12 Nov · scored 13 Nov
Unloved Quality: Strong and cheap, but the market has not warmed to it.
Around its 29 Oct results, analysts left next year's EPS estimate little changed.
As of 13 Nov 2026, the MoatMap Score for TAL Education Group (TAL) is 85/100, ranked against 25,000+ stocks in 38 markets (Quality 72, Value 65, Momentum 48, each scored against its sector).
Does the score work? Each tenth of the ranking, tracked monthly. See the record →
TAL Education is one of China's largest after-school learning companies, rebuilt after the 2021 tutoring crackdown around learning devices, non-academic courses and permitted enrichment. Revenue growth has been strong and the company holds a large cash balance. The risk is that its business model exists at the discretion of Chinese regulators, and its US listing adds geopolitical risk, which makes long-term returns difficult to underwrite with confidence.
ABOUT TAL EDUCATION GROUP
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TAL Education Group provides smart learning solutions in the People's Republic of China. It offers learning services through Xueersi Peiyou small classes, personalized premium services, and online course offerings.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | CAGR | TTM | 2027E | 2028E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | 1.0B | 1.5B | 2.3B | 3.0B | 43.4% | 3.3B | 3.5B | 4.1B | 16.9% |
| EPS | -1.76 | -0.21 | -0.01 | 0.14 | 0.93 | 580.5% | 1.31 | 1.01 | 1.16 | 11.6% |
| Shares | — | 212.3M | 201.4M | 202.8M | 184.5M | -13.1% | — | — | — | — |
| Debt | — | 157.7M | 239.2M | 333.3M | 387.5M | 34.9% | 416.9M | — | — | — |
| Equity | — | 3.8B | 3.7B | 3.8B | 3.8B | -0.6% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | — | 7.4M | 306.2M | 397.9M | 601.5M | 334.0% | 610.9M | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | — | -301.6M | 95.1M | -847.0M | -175.7M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | — | -66.2M | -233.1M | -13.2M | -643.5M | — | — | — | — | — |
No clear trend: not near its 52-week low, and not in a steady uptrend.
Swung more than 53% of stocks we rank over the past year (volatility 44% a year).
How this is worked out
The Price check reads only the chart, the price side of the Momentum score in words; it is not the MoatMap Score.
- Still falling: It set a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, after a deep fall.
- Finding a floor: It fell hard, but has set no new low for more than two weeks.
- Turning up: It has climbed off its low and is back above a rising 50-day average.
- In an uptrend: It is near its 52-week high and above its 200-day average.
- No clear trend (this stock): None of the above: no recent deep fall and no steady climb.
- No read yet: Not enough price history yet: it needs a year of trading.
In past US falls, waiting for Turning up cut the chance of another 20% drop from 42% to 33%. Returns were no better, and 33% of turns failed.
The exact rules
Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high, with the low set after the high. Finding a floor is the same fall with no new low in the last two weeks. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average, with the 50-day average above the 200-day, and within 15% of the high. No clear trend is everything else. No read yet is under 252 trading days of history, or missing data. A new state shows once it has held for three trading days.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn (the Turning up rule above) cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: how much the price moved day to day over the past year, scaled to a yearly figure (annualised volatility) and ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Consumer Defensive, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of TAL are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| TAL | TAL Education Group(you) | $5.6B | 85 |
| EDU | New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. | $9.1B | 84 |
| 1797.HK | East Buy Holding Limited | $3.9B | 71 |
| 000526.SZ | Xueda (Xiamen) Education Technology Group Co., Ltd | $611M | 86 |
| 605098.SS | Shanghai Action Education Technology CO.,LTD. | $924M | 70 |
| 0667.HK | China East Education Holdings Limited | $1.2B | 62 |
| DAO | Youdao, Inc. | $2.3B | 48 |
| 1851.HK | China Gingko Education Group Company Limited | $584M | 61 |
| 3978.HK | China Beststudy Education Group | $267M | 94 |
| 1890.HK | China Kepei Education Group Limited | $218M | 77 |
Peer medians: ROE 7.2% · P/E 20.7x · Gross margin 33.6%
Company Deep Dive
A 10,000-word report: the business and its segments, what management promised on earnings calls and whether it delivered, the competition, and how things could turn out.