TSG.JO
Strong BuyFull HouseAI neutralTsogo Sun Limited · Consumer Cyclical · South Africa · $445M
730.00c -1.2% · close 5 Oct · scored 7 Oct
Full House: Strong business, sensible price, market agrees. The rare full house.
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Tsogo Sun maintains a leading operational footprint across South African gaming and hospitality, backed by healthy underlying cash generation and attractive valuation multiples. However, recent downward revisions in forward earnings expectations reflect mounting pressure on domestic consumer discretionary spending, justifying a neutral stance.
ABOUT TSOGO SUN LIMITED
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Tsogo Sun Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the gaming, entertainment, and hospitality business in South Africa. The company operates through Casinos, Limited Payout Machines (LPMs), and Other Gaming and Betting segments.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (ZAR)
| Year | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | CAGR | TTM | 2027E | 2028E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 11.1B | 11.3B | 10.9B | 10.8B | -0.7% | 11.0B | 10.7B | 10.8B | -0.2% |
| EPS (ZAc) | 167.00 | 147.00 | 120.00 | 126.00 | -9.0% | 125.36 | 111.18 | 108.30 | -7.3% |
| Shares | 1.0B | 1.0B | 1.0B | 980.3M | -6.3% | 970.3M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 8.8B | 8.4B | 7.7B | 6.9B | -7.7% | 6.9B | — | — | — |
| Equity | 4.5B | 4.8B | 5.1B | 5.4B | 6.3% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 1.9B | 1.5B | 1.4B | 1.8B | -2.8% | 2.2B | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | -862.0M | -984.0M | -872.0M | -554.0M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | -1.3B | -456.0M | -700.0M | -1.2B | — | — | — | — | — |
Calmer than 64% of stocks we rank over the past year (34% a year).
How this is worked out
What it measures: day-to-day price moves over the past year, as a yearly figure, ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Consumer Cyclical, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of TSG.JO are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | StockRank | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSG.JO | Tsogo Sun Limited(you) | $445M | 97 | Strong Buy |
| SUI.JO | Sun International Limited | $660M | 88 | Strong Buy |
| ITE.JO | Italtile Limited | $601M | 98 | Strong Buy |
| LEW.JO | Lewis Group Limited | $269M | 97 | Strong Buy |
| SUR.JO | Spur Corporation Ltd | $215M | 96 | Strong Buy |
| KAL.JO | KAL Group Limited | $198M | 99 | Strong Buy |
| MTH.JO | Motus Holdings Limited | $1.1B | 94 | Strong Buy |
| CMH.JO | Combined Motor Holdings Limited | $150M | 97 | Strong Buy |
| SSU.JO | Southern Sun Limited | $816M | 86 | Strong Buy |
| NPK.JO | Nampak Limited | $240M | 85 | Strong Buy |
Peer medians: ROE 16.3% · P/E 8.4x · Gross margin 34.0%
Company Deep Dive
Business segments breakdown, earnings transcript analysis, management credibility scoring, competitive landscape, and scenario modelling.