VAC
HoldHot AirMarriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation · Consumer Cyclical · United States · $3.8B cap · $41.7M/day traded
$111.09 +1.2% · close 27 Oct · scored 28 Oct
Hot Air: Rising on momentum alone: weak business, rich price.
Report expected 4 Nov: the next-year EPS estimate has risen 12.7% over the last 14 weeks.
As of 28 Oct 2026, MoatMap's StockRank for Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (VAC) is 52/100, ranked against 24,000+ stocks in 35 markets (Quality 33, Value 32, Momentum 81, each scored against its sector).
Does StockRank work? Each month we publish how every decile did, whichever way it went. See the record →
ABOUT MARRIOTT VACATIONS WORLDWIDE CORPORATION
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Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation is a global leader in vacation ownership, offering a diverse portfolio of luxury vacation clubs and resorts under prestigious brands like Marriott Vacation Club and Westin Vacation Club. Its competitive moat is its strong brand recognition, extensive global network of high-quality resorts, and integrated timeshare sales and management platform. The company is a premier operator in the vacation ownership industry, benefiting from customer loyalty programs and flexible vacation options.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4.7B | 4.7B | 5.0B | 5.0B | 2.6% | 3.4B | 5.4B | 5.7B | 6.1% |
| EPS | 8.76 | 6.96 | 6.16 | -8.84 | -16.1% | -9.55 | — | — | — |
| Shares | 37.5M | 35.3M | 34.9M | 34.1M | -9.0% | 34.4M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 5.0B | 5.1B | 5.2B | 5.7B | 4.2% | 5.5B | — | — | — |
| Equity | 2.5B | 2.4B | 2.4B | 2.0B | -7.2% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 522.0M | 232.0M | 205.0M | 28.0M | -62.3% | 144.0M | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | 16.0M | -112.0M | -115.0M | -70.0M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | -486.0M | -401.0M | -132.0M | 241.0M | — | — | — | — | — |
Above its 200-day average and 15% below its 52-week high.
Swung more than 74% of stocks we rank over the past year (59% a year).
How this is worked out
StockRank judges the business. The price check reads only the chart: it is the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn like this one cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: day-to-day price moves over the past year, as a yearly figure, ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Consumer Cyclical, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of VAC are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | StockRank | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAC | Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation(you) | $3.8B | 52 | Hold |
| CZR | Caesars Entertainment, Inc. | $5.9B | 48 | Hold |
| MTN | Vail Resorts, Inc. | $5.2B | 58 | Hold |
| RRR | Red Rock Resorts, Inc. | $5.1B | 44 | Hold |
| BYD | Boyd Gaming Corporation | $5.2B | 44 | Hold |
| WYNN | Wynn Resorts, Limited | $7.5B | 38 | Hold |
| HGV | Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. | $2.8B | 22 | Sell |
| PENN | PENN Entertainment, Inc. | $1.9B | 23 | Sell |
| LVS | Las Vegas Sands Corp. | $23.1B | 45 | Hold |
| MCRI | Monarch Casino & Resort, Inc. | $2.0B | 82 | Strong Buy |
Peer medians: ROE 8.5% · P/E 19.5x · Gross margin 37.3%
Company Deep Dive
Business segments breakdown, earnings transcript analysis, management credibility scoring, competitive landscape, and scenario modelling.