VST
Fallen FavouriteVistra Corp. · Utilities · United States · $47.0B cap · $1.1B/day traded
$133.45 +1.7% · close 11 Nov · scored 11 Nov
Fallen Favourite: A good business, still expensive, and its momentum is weak.
Around its 5 Nov results, analysts cut next year's EPS estimate 0.8%.
As of 11 Nov 2026, the MoatMap Score for Vistra Corp. (VST) is 45/100, ranked against 25,000+ stocks in 38 markets (Quality 67, Value 35, Momentum 38, each scored against its sector).
Does the score work? Each tenth of the ranking, tracked monthly. See the record →
ABOUT VISTRA CORP.
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Vistra Corp. is a leading integrated retail electricity and power generation company in the United States, serving millions of customers. The company owns a large and diversified generation portfolio encompassing natural gas, nuclear, coal, and solar facilities, providing significant operational flexibility. Vistra's scale as a competitive power producer and retail provider positions it strongly in key U.S. energy markets.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 13.7B | 14.8B | 17.2B | 17.7B | 8.9% | 20.6B | 22.0B | 23.1B | 14.1% |
| EPS | -3.15 | 3.82 | 7.26 | 2.22 | -23.7% | 7.43 | 9.48 | 10.58 | 118.1% |
| Shares | 389.8M | 351.5M | 339.8M | 338.1M | -13.3% | 339.0M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 13.3B | 14.7B | 17.0B | 20.1B | 14.6% | 20.1B | — | — | — |
| Equity | 4.9B | 5.3B | 5.6B | 5.1B | 1.3% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 485.0M | 5.5B | 4.6B | 4.1B | 103.2% | 5.8B | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | -1.2B | -2.1B | -5.3B | -4.4B | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | -80.0M | -294.0M | -1.6B | -74.0M | — | — | — | — | — |
Made a new 52-week low 3 trading days ago, 33% below its 52-week high. The fall has not stopped yet.
Swung more than 67% of stocks we rank over the past year (volatility 53% a year).
How this is worked out
The MoatMap Score weighs the business, its price and its trend. The price check reads only the chart: the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn (the Turning up rule above) cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: how much the price moved day to day over the past year, scaled to a yearly figure (annualised volatility) and ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Utilities, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of VST are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| VST | Vistra Corp.(you) | $47.0B | 45 |
| CEG | Constellation Energy Corporation | $89.8B | 43 |
| NRG | NRG Energy, Inc. | $19.4B | 26 |
| TLN | Talen Energy Corporation | $15.5B | 23 |
| OKLO | Oklo Inc. | $4.9B | 2 |
| EXC | Exelon Corporation | $45.8B | 45 |
| ETR | Entergy Corporation | $51.3B | 46 |
| XEL | Xcel Energy Inc. | $48.8B | 48 |
| AEP | American Electric Power Company, Inc. | $70.6B | 45 |
| AEE | Ameren Corporation | $29.9B | 46 |
Peer medians: ROE 9.1% · P/E 20.5x · Gross margin 45.7%
Company Deep Dive
A 10,000-word report: the business and its segments, what management promised on earnings calls and whether it delivered, the competition, and how things could turn out.