4321.SR
Unloved QualityArabian Centres Company · Real Estate · Saudi Arabia · $1.7B cap · $4.0M/day traded
SAR 13.29 +0.7% · close 12 Nov · scored 13 Nov
Unloved Quality: Strong and cheap, but the market has not warmed to it.
As of 13 Nov 2026, the MoatMap Score for Arabian Centres Company (4321.SR) is 56/100, ranked against 25,000+ stocks in 38 markets (Quality 51, Value 66, Momentum 33, each scored against its sector).
Does the score work? Each tenth of the ranking, tracked monthly. See the record →
ABOUT ARABIAN CENTRES COMPANY
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Arabian Centres Company engages in the operation and management of commercial centres, tourist resorts, hotels, and restaurants in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (SAR)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.0B | 2.3B | 2.3B | 2.3B | 3.9% | 2.3B | 2.4B | 3.2B | 18.1% |
| EPS (SAR) | 1.63 | 3.19 | 2.56 | 2.67 | 17.9% | 2.33 | 1.55 | 2.34 | -6.3% |
| Shares | 475.0M | 474.9M | 474.9M | 475.0M | -0.0% | 517.7M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 11.6B | 12.2B | 15.3B | 19.8B | 19.5% | 18.4B | — | — | — |
| Equity | 13.5B | 14.3B | 14.8B | 15.5B | 4.6% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 1.5B | 1.4B | 1.0B | 1.8B | 6.5% | 1.5B | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | -1.1B | -689.0M | -1.9B | -1.2B | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | -476.8M | -1.2B | 1.5B | 3.0B | — | — | — | — | — |
No new 52-week low for 2 weeks, 13% above that low, but not back above a rising 50-day average.
Calmer than 87% of stocks we rank over the past year (volatility 23% a year).
How this is worked out
The Price check reads only the chart, the price side of the Momentum score in words; it is not the MoatMap Score.
- Still falling: It set a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, after a deep fall.
- Finding a floor (this stock): It fell hard, but has set no new low for more than two weeks.
- Turning up: It has climbed off its low and is back above a rising 50-day average.
- In an uptrend: It is near its 52-week high and above its 200-day average.
- No clear trend: None of the above: no recent deep fall and no steady climb.
- No read yet: Not enough price history yet: it needs a year of trading.
In past US falls, waiting for Turning up cut the chance of another 20% drop from 42% to 33%. Returns were no better, and 33% of turns failed.
The exact rules
Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high, with the low set after the high. Finding a floor is the same fall with no new low in the last two weeks. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average, with the 50-day average above the 200-day, and within 15% of the high. No clear trend is everything else. No read yet is under 252 trading days of history, or missing data. A new state shows once it has held for three trading days.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn (the Turning up rule above) cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: how much the price moved day to day over the past year, scaled to a yearly figure (annualised volatility) and ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Real Estate, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of 4321.SR are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4321.SR | Arabian Centres Company(you) | $1.7B | 56 |
| 4150.SR | Arriyadh Development Co. | $932M | 50 |
| 4325.SR | Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company | $6.4B | 49 |
| 4340.SR | Al Rajhi REIT Fund | $578M | 57 |
| 4020.SR | Saudi Real Estate Company | $1.3B | 81 |
| 4310.SR | Knowledge Economic City Company | $1.8B | 24 |
| 4300.SR | Dar Al Arkan Real Estate Development Company | $5.2B | 67 |
| 4342.SR | Jadwa Investment - Jadwa Reit Saudi Fund | $382M | 52 |
| 4322.SR | Retal Urban Development Company | $820M | 37 |
| 4344.SR | SEDCO Capital REIT Fund | $331M | 53 |
Peer medians: ROE 5.3% · P/E 14.4x · Gross margin 64.4%
Company Deep Dive
A 10,000-word report: the business and its segments, what management promised on earnings calls and whether it delivered, the competition, and how things could turn out.