BBAI
SinkerBigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. · Technology · United States · $1.0B cap · $47.4M/day traded
$2.30 -0.9% · close 11 Nov · scored 12 Nov
Sinker: Weak business, rich price and weak momentum. Nothing here to keep it afloat.
As of 12 Nov 2026, the MoatMap Score for BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) is 6/100, ranked against 25,000+ stocks in 38 markets (Quality 22, Value 31, Momentum 22, each scored against its sector).
Does the score work? Each tenth of the ranking, tracked monthly. See the record →
ABOUT BIGBEAR.AI HOLDINGS, INC.
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BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. delivers AI-powered decision intelligence, predictive analytics, and cyber security solutions to government and commercial sectors. The company's competitive moat is established by its deeply embedded, long-term relationships with the US Department of Defense and the intelligence community. It operates as a specialized AI software provider focused on national security, defense, and complex supply chain logistics.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 155.0M | 155.2M | 158.2M | 127.7M | -6.3% | 142.1M | 155.7M | 172.5M | 16.2% |
| EPS | -0.23 | -0.13 | -1.10 | -0.82 | — | -0.32 | -0.41 | -0.25 | — |
| Shares | 478.9M | 478.9M | 251.6M | 437.0M | -8.8% | 481.4M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 200.3M | 162.5M | 146.4M | 114.8M | -16.9% | 22.5M | — | — | — |
| Equity | -37.9M | -30.0M | -3.7M | 611.9M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | -48.9M | -18.3M | -38.1M | -42.0M | — | -71.6M | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | -5.2M | -3.8M | 2.8M | -606.7M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | -103.1M | 42.1M | 52.5M | 691.3M | — | — | — | — | — |
No new 52-week low for 3 weeks, 11% above that low, but not back above a rising 50-day average.
Swung more than 88% of stocks we rank over the past year (volatility 79% a year).
How this is worked out
The MoatMap Score weighs the business, its price and its trend. The price check reads only the chart: the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn (the Turning up rule above) cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: how much the price moved day to day over the past year, scaled to a yearly figure (annualised volatility) and ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Technology, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of BBAI are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| BBAI | BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.(you) | $1.0B | 6 |
| SHAZ | SharonAI Holdings Inc. | $822M | 5 |
| KEEL.TO | Keel Infrastructure Corp. | $1.3B | 1 |
| CHRN | ChronoScale Holdings Corporation | $2.2B | 6 |
| WYFI | WhiteFiber, Inc. | $388M | 5 |
| CSQR | Csquare, Inc. | $2.5B | 13 |
| CIFR | Cipher Digital Inc. | $3.3B | 0 |
| APLD | Applied Digital Corporation | $5.5B | 1 |
| NABL | N-able, Inc. | $967M | 54 |
| TSSI | TSS, Inc. | $196M | 32 |
Peer medians: ROE 6.1% · P/E 28.8x · Gross margin 52.2%
Company Deep Dive
A 10,000-word report: the business and its segments, what management promised on earnings calls and whether it delivered, the competition, and how things could turn out.