CENX
HoldUnloved QualityCentury Aluminum Company · Basic Materials · United States · $3.8B cap · $60.2M/day traded
$34.96 -4.9% · close 12 Oct · scored 14 Oct
StockRank down 1.6 since 13 Oct.
Unloved Quality: Strong and cheap; the market has not turned yet.
Report expected 5 Nov: the next-year EPS estimate has fallen 15.6% over the last 13 weeks.
As of 14 Oct 2026, MoatMap's StockRank for Century Aluminum Company (CENX) is 62/100, ranked against 24,000+ stocks in 35 markets (Quality 78, Value 57, Momentum 21, each scored against its sector).
Does StockRank work? Each month we publish how every decile did, whichever way it went. See the record →
ABOUT CENTURY ALUMINUM COMPANY
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Century Aluminum Company is a primary aluminum producer, operating smelters in the United States and Iceland, manufacturing high-purity aluminum for various industrial applications. The company benefits from access to competitive energy sources, particularly hydroelectric power in Iceland, which is a critical factor in aluminum production costs. As a pure-play producer, Century Aluminum's profitability is sensitive to global aluminum prices, yet it offers direct exposure to the base metal commodity market.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | 2.8B | 2.2B | 2.2B | 2.5B | -3.1% | 2.7B | 3.3B | 4.1B | 27.9% |
| EPS | -1.85 | -0.15 | -0.47 | 3.46 | 0.42 | -87.9% | 5.79 | 9.83 | 11.46 | 422.3% |
| Shares | — | 92.3M | 92.7M | 93.3M | 99.0M | +7.2% | 99.0M | — | — | — |
| Debt | — | 527.7M | 479.2M | 528.2M | 548.3M | 1.3% | 480.0M | — | — | — |
| Equity | — | 399.3M | 355.6M | 694.4M | 805.6M | 26.4% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | — | 25.9M | 105.6M | -24.6M | 185.0M | 92.6% | 340.8M | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | — | -85.5M | -57.8M | -80.0M | -100.2M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | — | 74.4M | -13.0M | 50.0M | 15.1M | — | — | — | — | — |
No clear trend: not near its 52-week low, and not in a steady uptrend.
Swung more than 79% of stocks we rank over the past year (64% a year).
How this is worked out
StockRank judges the business. The price check reads only the chart: it is the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn like this one cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: day-to-day price moves over the past year, as a yearly figure, ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Basic Materials, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of CENX are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | StockRank | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CENX | Century Aluminum Company(you) | $3.8B | 62 | Hold |
| 185.DE | Alcoa Corporation | $11.3B | 60 | Hold |
| KALU | Kaiser Aluminum Corporation | $2.6B | 81 | Strong Buy |
| UFPI | UFP Industries, Inc. | $4.5B | 62 | Hold |
| WDFC | WD-40 Company | $2.7B | 61 | Hold |
| FUL | H.B. Fuller Company | $2.7B | 64 | Hold |
| USLM | United States Lime & Minerals, Inc. | $3.1B | 57 | Hold |
| BCPC | Balchem Corporation | $5.4B | 65 | Buy |
| SXT | Sensient Technologies Corporation | $5.5B | 67 | Buy |
| BCC | Boise Cascade Company | $2.7B | 67 | Buy |
Peer medians: ROE 2.9% · P/E 20.7x · Gross margin 28.1%
Company Deep Dive
Business segments breakdown, earnings transcript analysis, management credibility scoring, competitive landscape, and scenario modelling.