Also trades as AAI.AX.
AA
Unloved QualityAlcoa Corporation · Basic Materials · United States · $10.0B cap · $203.1M/day traded
$40.45 -1.4% · close 12 Nov · scored 13 Nov
Unloved Quality: Strong and cheap, but the market has not warmed to it.
As of 13 Nov 2026, the MoatMap Score for Alcoa Corporation (AA) is 70/100, ranked against 25,000+ stocks in 38 markets (Quality 68, Value 74, Momentum 24, each scored against its sector).
Does the score work? Each tenth of the ranking, tracked monthly. See the record →
ABOUT ALCOA CORPORATION
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Alcoa Corporation is a global leader in the production of bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products, operating a vertically integrated business across the entire aluminum value chain. The company benefits from a diversified global asset portfolio and a focus on producing lower-carbon aluminum, providing a competitive edge as industries seek sustainable materials. This strategic positioning solidifies Alcoa's role as a fundamental supplier to critical sectors worldwide.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 12.5B | 10.6B | 11.9B | 12.8B | 1.0% | 14.3B | 14.7B | 14.9B | 7.6% |
| EPS | -0.57 | -3.65 | 0.26 | 4.45 | 1611.5% | 5.75 | 8.02 | 6.15 | 17.5% |
| Shares | 177.0M | 178.5M | 258.4M | 263.1M | +48.7% | 264.0M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 1.9B | 2.0B | 2.8B | 2.7B | 13.2% | 4.8B | — | — | — |
| Equity | 5.1B | 4.3B | 5.2B | 6.1B | 6.4% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 822.0M | 91.0M | 622.0M | 1.2B | 13.0% | 1.6B | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | -495.0M | -585.0M | -608.0M | -502.0M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | -768.0M | 57.0M | 201.0M | -261.0M | — | — | — | — | — |
No clear trend: not near its 52-week low, and not in a steady uptrend.
Swung more than 67% of stocks we rank over the past year (volatility 53% a year).
How this is worked out
The Price check reads only the chart, the price side of the Momentum score in words; it is not the MoatMap Score.
- Still falling: It set a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, after a deep fall.
- Finding a floor: It fell hard, but has set no new low for more than two weeks.
- Turning up: It has climbed off its low and is back above a rising 50-day average.
- In an uptrend: It is near its 52-week high and above its 200-day average.
- No clear trend (this stock): None of the above: no recent deep fall and no steady climb.
- No read yet: Not enough price history yet: it needs a year of trading.
In past US falls, waiting for Turning up cut the chance of another 20% drop from 42% to 33%. Returns were no better, and 33% of turns failed.
The exact rules
Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high, with the low set after the high. Finding a floor is the same fall with no new low in the last two weeks. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average, with the 50-day average above the 200-day, and within 15% of the high. No clear trend is everything else. No read yet is under 252 trading days of history, or missing data. A new state shows once it has held for three trading days.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn (the Turning up rule above) cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: how much the price moved day to day over the past year, scaled to a yearly figure (annualised volatility) and ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Basic Materials, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of AA are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| AA | Alcoa Corporation(you) | $10.0B | 70 |
| CENX | Century Aluminum Company | $3.1B | 80 |
| KALU | Kaiser Aluminum Corporation | $1.8B | 67 |
| AXTA | Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. | $7.3B | 70 |
| RPM | RPM International Inc. | $12.6B | 74 |
| EMN | Eastman Chemical Company | $7.4B | 74 |
| CDE | Coeur Mining, Inc. | $13.8B | 66 |
| AUGO | Aura Minerals Inc. | $6.5B | 66 |
| HL | Hecla Mining Company | $9.3B | 58 |
| SSD | Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. | $7.6B | 79 |
Peer medians: ROE 1.6% · P/E 19.4x · Gross margin 26.7%
Company Deep Dive
A 10,000-word report: the business and its segments, what management promised on earnings calls and whether it delivered, the competition, and how things could turn out.