CHA
Premium GrowerAI neutralChagee Holdings Limited · Consumer Cyclical · China · $2.4B cap · $8.2M/day traded
$12.33 -0.8% · close 11 Nov · scored 11 Nov
Premium Grower: Strong business with the market behind it, priced at a premium.
Results expected 27 Nov. Analysts raised next year's EPS estimate 2.7% over 13 weeks.
As of 11 Nov 2026, the MoatMap Score for Chagee Holdings Limited (CHA) is 91/100, ranked against 25,000+ stocks in 38 markets (Quality 74, Value 43, Momentum 77, each scored against its sector).
Does the score work? Each tenth of the ranking, tracked monthly. See the record →
Chagee is a fast-growing Chinese premium tea-drink chain whose second-quarter results showed strong profitability and expansion overseas. The brand has momentum, but Chinese beverage chains face fierce price competition and consumer spending in China remains soft. The company has a short public track record and its overseas expansion is still unproven at scale.
ABOUT CHAGEE HOLDINGS LIMITED
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Chagee Holdings Limited operates a rapidly expanding chain of premium Chinese-style fresh tea beverage stores, blending traditional tea culture with modern innovations. The company differentiates itself through high-quality ingredients and unique flavor profiles, establishing a strong brand identity and competitive moat in a fast-growing Asian new-style tea segment.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
Reported in CNY
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 73.2M | 656.6M | 1.7B | 1.8B | 190.6% | 2.0B | 2.1B | 2.4B | 11.0% |
| EPS | -0.12 | 0.56 | 1.81 | 0.87 | 24.9% | 0.99 | 0.94 | 1.02 | 4.2% |
| Shares | 183.5M | 183.5M | 183.5M | 190.8M | +3.9% | — | — | — | — |
| Debt | 9.1M | 15.3M | 75.1M | 182.1M | 171.4% | 238.7M | — | — | — |
| Equity | 6.5M | 180.2M | 363.6M | 1.0B | 445.8% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 6.4M | 273.6M | 394.9M | 228.8M | 229.3% | 183.6M | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | -1.6M | -20.8M | -31.9M | -114.8M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | -4.9K | 48.7M | -24.2M | 284.8M | — | — | — | — | — |
38% above its 52-week low and back above a rising 50-day average since 15 Oct 2026.
Swung more than 67% of stocks we rank over the past year (volatility 53% a year).
How this is worked out
The MoatMap Score weighs the business, its price and its trend. The price check reads only the chart: the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn (the Turning up rule above) cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: how much the price moved day to day over the past year, scaled to a yearly figure (annualised volatility) and ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Consumer Cyclical, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of CHA are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHA | Chagee Holdings Limited(you) | $2.4B | 91 |
| 0999.HK | Xiaocaiyuan International Holding Ltd. | $1.2B | 90 |
| 2589.HK | Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial Co., Ltd. | $769M | 87 |
| 6831.HK | Green Tea Group Limited | $363M | 93 |
| 603043.SS | Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited | $1.1B | 64 |
| 6862.HK | Haidilao International Holding Ltd. | $6.4B | 64 |
| 1364.HK | Guming Holdings Limited | $6.4B | 57 |
| YUMC | Yum China Holdings, Inc. | $15.0B | 70 |
| 2408.HK | Guangzhou Xiao Noodles Catering Management Co., Ltd. | $334M | 65 |
| 1405.HK | DPC Dash Ltd | $551M | 37 |
Peer medians: ROE 6.1% · P/E 23.5x · Gross margin 21.2%
Company Deep Dive
A 10,000-word report: the business and its segments, what management promised on earnings calls and whether it delivered, the competition, and how things could turn out.