YUMC
Premium GrowerYum China Holdings, Inc. · Consumer Cyclical · China · $15.0B cap · $92.5M/day traded
$49.04 -1.4% · close 11 Nov · scored 11 Nov
Premium Grower: Strong business with the market behind it, priced at a premium.
After its 3 Nov results, analysts left next year's EPS estimate little changed.
As of 11 Nov 2026, the MoatMap Score for Yum China Holdings, Inc. (YUMC) is 70/100, ranked against 25,000+ stocks in 38 markets (Quality 66, Value 42, Momentum 58, each scored against its sector).
Does the score work? Each tenth of the ranking, tracked monthly. See the record →
ABOUT YUM CHINA HOLDINGS, INC.
Read
Yum China Holdings, Inc. owns, operates, and franchises restaurants in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through two KFC, Pizza Hut, and All Other segments. It operates restaurants under the KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, Lavazza, Little Sheep, and Huang Ji Huang concepts.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 9.6B | 11.0B | 11.3B | 11.8B | 7.2% | 12.7B | 12.9B | 13.7B | 7.7% |
| EPS | 1.05 | 1.99 | 2.34 | 2.52 | 33.9% | 2.88 | 2.96 | 3.39 | 16.0% |
| Shares | 419.0M | 407.2M | 377.7M | 354.1M | -15.5% | 336.0M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 2.4B | 2.5B | 2.4B | 2.3B | -0.8% | 3.3B | — | — | — |
| Equity | 6.5B | 6.4B | 5.7B | 5.4B | -6.0% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 1.4B | 1.5B | 1.4B | 1.5B | 1.2% | 1.6B | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | -522.0M | -743.0M | -178.0M | -5.0M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | -844.0M | -716.0M | -1.6B | -1.7B | — | — | — | — | — |
No new 52-week low for 5 weeks, 25% above that low, but not back above a rising 50-day average.
The Momentum score still reads 58: it looks back six months, so it has not caught up with this fall.
Calmer than 82% of stocks we rank over the past year (volatility 25% a year).
How this is worked out
The MoatMap Score weighs the business, its price and its trend. The price check reads only the chart: the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn (the Turning up rule above) cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: how much the price moved day to day over the past year, scaled to a yearly figure (annualised volatility) and ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Consumer Cyclical, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of YUMC are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| YUMC | Yum China Holdings, Inc.(you) | $15.0B | 70 |
| 6862.HK | Haidilao International Holding Ltd. | $6.4B | 64 |
| 1364.HK | Guming Holdings Limited | $6.4B | 57 |
| 603043.SS | Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited | $1.1B | 64 |
| CHA | Chagee Holdings Limited | $2.4B | 91 |
| 0999.HK | Xiaocaiyuan International Holding Ltd. | $1.2B | 90 |
| 2589.HK | Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial Co., Ltd. | $769M | 87 |
| 2408.HK | Guangzhou Xiao Noodles Catering Management Co., Ltd. | $334M | 65 |
| 6831.HK | Green Tea Group Limited | $363M | 93 |
| 1405.HK | DPC Dash Ltd | $551M | 37 |
Peer medians: ROE 6.1% · P/E 23.6x · Gross margin 21.4%
Company Deep Dive
A 10,000-word report: the business and its segments, what management promised on earnings calls and whether it delivered, the competition, and how things could turn out.