HESM
Unloved QualityAI neutralHess Midstream LP · Energy · United States · $6.3B cap · $89.7M/day traded
$29.96 -1.1% · close 6 Nov · scored 7 Nov
Score up 1.5 since 6 Nov.
Unloved Quality: Strong and cheap, but the market has not warmed to it.
After its 2 Nov results, analysts left next year's EPS estimate little changed.
As of 7 Nov 2026, the MoatMap Score for Hess Midstream LP (HESM) is 63/100, ranked against 25,000+ stocks in 38 markets (Quality 74, Value 54, Momentum 30, each scored against its sector).
Does the score work? Each tenth of the ranking, tracked monthly. See the record →
Hess Midstream owns Bakken gathering and processing assets under fee-based contracts with minimum volume commitments, beat second-quarter estimates, reaffirmed its 2026 outlook and is guiding to lower capex and higher free cash flow for distributions and buybacks. The shares recently hit a 52-week low after a Morgan Stanley downgrade, reflecting concern that Bakken volumes are plateauing under Chevron's ownership of Hess, which limits growth even if high oil prices support activity.
ABOUT HESS MIDSTREAM LP
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Hess Midstream LP is a fee-based, growth-oriented midstream energy company that owns, operates, and develops midstream assets in the Bakken shale play. The company's competitive moat is secured by long-term, dedicated contracts with minimum volume commitments from its sponsor, Hess Corporation, which insulate it from direct commodity price volatility. It operates as a highly stable, cash-generative infrastructure provider with a strong track record of dividend growth and capital return.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.3B | 1.3B | 1.5B | 1.6B | 8.3% | 1.6B | 1.6B | 1.3B | -10.7% |
| EPS | 0.70 | 2.11 | 2.51 | 2.87 | 60.4% | 2.92 | 2.94 | 2.72 | -2.6% |
| Shares | 128.4M | 68.4M | 104.1M | 129.4M | +0.8% | 128.4M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 2.9B | 3.2B | 3.5B | 3.8B | 9.3% | 3.6B | — | — | — |
| Equity | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 861.1M | 866.4M | 940.3M | 983.8M | 4.5% | 1.0B | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | -238.2M | -223.5M | -306.1M | -255.6M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | -622.0M | -640.6M | -635.3M | -730.6M | — | — | — | — | — |
Made a new 52-week low 11 trading days ago, 26% below its 52-week high. The fall has not stopped yet.
Calmer than 80% of stocks we rank over the past year (volatility 26% a year).
How this is worked out
The MoatMap Score weighs the business, its price and its trend. The price check reads only the chart: the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn (the Turning up rule above) cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: how much the price moved day to day over the past year, scaled to a yearly figure (annualised volatility) and ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Energy, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of HESM are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| HESM | Hess Midstream LP(you) | $6.3B | 63 |
| PAGP | Plains GP Holdings, L.P. | $6.7B | 72 |
| AM | Antero Midstream Corporation | $9.9B | 45 |
| EE | Excelerate Energy, Inc. | $3.7B | 47 |
| KNTK | Kinetik Holdings Inc. | $9.4B | 44 |
| INSW | International Seaways, Inc. | $5.7B | 92 |
| PAA | Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. | $18.8B | 75 |
| VNOM | Viper Energy, Inc. | $16.9B | 46 |
| CQP | Cheniere Energy Partners, L.P. | $32.0B | 68 |
| GLP | Global Partners LP | $1.6B | 75 |
Peer medians: ROE 10.2% · P/E 14.1x · Gross margin 44.8%
Company Deep Dive
A 10,000-word report: the business and its segments, what management promised on earnings calls and whether it delivered, the competition, and how things could turn out.