NFG
Fallen FavouriteNational Fuel Gas Company · Energy · United States · $7.7B cap · $87.1M/day traded
$75.69 +1.4% · close 11 Nov · scored 11 Nov
Fallen Favourite: A good business, still expensive, and its momentum is weak.
As of 11 Nov 2026, the MoatMap Score for National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) is 55/100, ranked against 25,000+ stocks in 38 markets (Quality 61, Value 41, Momentum 47, each scored against its sector).
Does the score work? Each tenth of the ranking, tracked monthly. See the record →
ABOUT NATIONAL FUEL GAS COMPANY
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National Fuel Gas Company is a diversified energy company engaged in natural gas exploration and production, gathering, pipeline and storage, and utility operations across the northeastern United States. The company benefits from a vertically integrated business model, owning assets across the entire natural gas value chain, which provides operational synergies and stable cash flows. National Fuel Gas is a vertically integrated natural gas company with significant upstream, midstream, and downstream operations, primarily serving the Northeast U.S.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2027E | 2028E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.2B | 2.2B | 1.9B | 2.3B | 1.4% | 2.5B | 2.7B | 2.7B | 5.6% |
| EPS | 6.19 | 5.20 | 0.84 | 5.73 | -2.5% | 7.02 | 5.65 | 5.79 | 0.4% |
| Shares | 91.5M | 91.8M | 91.0M | 90.4M | -1.2% | 95.1M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 2.7B | 2.7B | 2.8B | 2.8B | 1.7% | 3.9B | — | — | — |
| Equity | 2.1B | 3.0B | 2.8B | 3.1B | 14.2% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 812.5M | 1.2B | 1.1B | 1.1B | 10.6% | 1.3B | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | -518.7M | -1.1B | -933.9M | -891.7M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | -276.2M | -207.0M | -149.3M | -203.4M | — | — | — | — | — |
No clear trend: not near its 52-week low, and not in a steady uptrend.
Calmer than 91% of stocks we rank over the past year (volatility 20% a year).
How this is worked out
The MoatMap Score weighs the business, its price and its trend. The price check reads only the chart: the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn (the Turning up rule above) cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: how much the price moved day to day over the past year, scaled to a yearly figure (annualised volatility) and ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Energy, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of NFG are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| NFG | National Fuel Gas Company(you) | $7.7B | 55 |
| DEC.L | Diversified Energy Company | $1.0B | 64 |
| SLNG | Stabilis Solutions, Inc. | $83M | 38 |
| KNTK | Kinetik Holdings Inc. | $9.4B | 51 |
| HESM | Hess Midstream LP | $6.3B | 59 |
| AM | Antero Midstream Corporation | $9.9B | 50 |
| XOM | ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation | $753.3B | 73 |
| CVX | Chevron Corporation | $457.5B | 85 |
| WFRD | Weatherford International plc | $6.3B | 46 |
| TDW | Tidewater Inc. | $4.3B | 52 |
Peer medians: ROE 10.2% · P/E 14.1x · Gross margin 44.8%
Company Deep Dive
A 10,000-word report: the business and its segments, what management promised on earnings calls and whether it delivered, the competition, and how things could turn out.