PDD
BuyFallen FavouriteAI pickPDD Holdings Inc. · Consumer Cyclical · Ireland · $112.5B cap · $422.0M/day traded
$78.40 +0.3% · close 27 Oct · scored 28 Oct
Fallen Favourite: A good business, still expensive, and the price is falling.
Report expected 18 Nov: the next-year EPS estimate has risen 1.4% over the last 14 weeks, up 4 weeks running.
As of 28 Oct 2026, MoatMap's StockRank for PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD) is 66/100, ranked against 24,000+ stocks in 35 markets (Quality 84, Value 44, Momentum 33, each scored against its sector).
Does StockRank work? Each month we publish how every decile did, whichever way it went. See the record →
PDD owns Pinduoduo, China's leading value e-commerce platform, and Temu internationally. Its model shares scale economics with customers: it pushes prices down, draws more shoppers, and uses that volume to cut merchant and logistics costs further. The quality score is high, the company holds a very large net cash position, and the latest quarter beat expectations even while it invests heavily in merchant support. The shares trade on a low earnings multiple for a business of this quality, and squeezed consumers trading down favour a value platform.
ABOUT PDD HOLDINGS INC.
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PDD Holdings Inc. operates a portfolio of e-commerce platforms, including Pinduoduo in China and Temu globally, offering a wide range of products at competitive prices through an interactive and gamified shopping experience. Its disruptive business model, focusing on social commerce and value-for-money, has rapidly gained market share, particularly among price-sensitive consumers. The company is a formidable player in the global internet retail space.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
Reported in CNY
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 19.4B | 35.0B | 54.8B | 60.1B | 45.7% | 67.6B | 70.0B | 77.7B | 9.4% |
| EPS | 13.78 | 24.25 | 44.23 | 39.57 | 42.1% | 8.89 | 40.47 | 48.74 | 6.8% |
| Shares | 1.4B | 1.4B | 1.4B | 1.4B | 0.0% | 1.4B | — | — | — |
| Debt | 2.4B | 1.4B | 1.5B | 768.8M | -31.9% | 726.2M | — | — | — |
| Equity | 16.9B | 26.3B | 42.9B | 59.1B | 51.7% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 7.2B | 13.3B | 17.0B | 14.9B | 27.2% | 16.8B | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | -3.3B | -7.8B | -16.5B | -6.0B | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | 1.5M | -1.3B | 0.2M | -727.4M | — | — | — | — | — |
No new 52-week low for 17 weeks, 9% above that low, but not back above a rising 50-day average.
Calmer than 66% of stocks we rank over the past year (33% a year).
How this is worked out
StockRank judges the business. The price check reads only the chart: it is the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn like this one cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: day-to-day price moves over the past year, as a yearly figure, ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Consumer Cyclical, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of PDD are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | StockRank | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PDD | PDD Holdings Inc.(you) | $112.5B | 66 | Buy |
| EBAY | eBay Inc. | $54.0B | 66 | Buy |
| MELI | MercadoLibre, Inc. | $91.8B | 40 | Hold |
| SE | Sea Limited | $45.7B | 49 | Hold |
| DASH | DoorDash, Inc. | $77.7B | 38 | Hold |
| ALE.WA | Allegro.eu S.A. | $14.9B | 69 | Buy |
| 4689.T | LY Corporation | $22.7B | 53 | Hold |
| 3690.HK | Meituan | $56.4B | 30 | Sell |
| 0625.HK | SHEIN Global Holdings Limited | $13.5B | 73 | Buy |
| 9618.HK | JD.com, Inc. | $34.8B | 38 | Hold |
Peer medians: ROE 8.1% · P/E 16.5x · Gross margin 31.0%
Company Deep Dive
Business segments breakdown, earnings transcript analysis, management credibility scoring, competitive landscape, and scenario modelling.