AGL
Hot Airagilon health, inc. · Healthcare · United States · $1.5B cap · $23.2M/day traded
$110.30 -3.9% · close 12 Nov · scored 13 Nov
Score down 1.7 since 12 Nov.
Hot Air: Strong momentum and nothing else: weak business, rich price.
After its 3 Nov results, analysts left next year's EPS estimate little changed.
As of 13 Nov 2026, the MoatMap Score for agilon health, inc. (AGL) is 42/100, ranked against 25,000+ stocks in 38 markets (Quality 30, Value 31, Momentum 74, each scored against its sector).
Does the score work? Each tenth of the ranking, tracked monthly. See the record →
ABOUT AGILON HEALTH, INC.
Read
agilon health, inc. partners with primary care physicians to transition their practices to a value-based, total-care model for senior patients. The company's competitive moat is established through long-term, exclusive joint ventures with dominant local physician groups, creating highly sticky regional networks. It operates as a leading healthcare services platform that manages risk-bearing Medicare Advantage contracts, aligning financial incentives with patient outcomes.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.4B | 4.3B | 6.1B | 5.9B | 35.4% | 6.0B | 5.9B | 6.3B | 2.8% |
| EPS | -6.50 | -16.00 | -15.75 | -23.75 | — | -6.69 | — | — | — |
| Shares | 16.5M | 16.3M | 16.5M | 16.6M | +0.6% | 16.8M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 52.6M | 43.2M | 41.5M | 36.8M | -11.2% | 33.4M | — | — | — |
| Equity | 1.0B | 661.8M | 471.0M | 126.7M | -50.4% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | -130.8M | -156.2M | -57.8M | -105.8M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | -444.4M | -44.0M | 139.9M | 88.6M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | 28.1M | -193.1M | -2.6M | -3.0M | — | — | — | — | — |
Above its 200-day average and 17% below its 52-week high.
Swung more than 99% of stocks we rank over the past year (volatility 167% a year).
How this is worked out
The Price check reads only the chart, the price side of the Momentum score in words; it is not the MoatMap Score.
- Still falling: It set a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, after a deep fall.
- Finding a floor: It fell hard, but has set no new low for more than two weeks.
- Turning up: It has climbed off its low and is back above a rising 50-day average.
- In an uptrend (this stock): It is near its 52-week high and above its 200-day average.
- No clear trend: None of the above: no recent deep fall and no steady climb.
- No read yet: Not enough price history yet: it needs a year of trading.
In past US falls, waiting for Turning up cut the chance of another 20% drop from 42% to 33%. Returns were no better, and 33% of turns failed.
The exact rules
Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high, with the low set after the high. Finding a floor is the same fall with no new low in the last two weeks. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average, with the 50-day average above the 200-day, and within 15% of the high. No clear trend is everything else. No read yet is under 252 trading days of history, or missing data. A new state shows once it has held for three trading days.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn (the Turning up rule above) cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: how much the price moved day to day over the past year, scaled to a yearly figure (annualised volatility) and ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Healthcare, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of AGL are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| AGL | agilon health, inc.(you) | $1.5B | 42 |
| PNTG | The Pennant Group, Inc. | $1.5B | 54 |
| SNDA | Sonida Senior Living, Inc. | $1.6B | 30 |
| STLN | The Oncology Institute, Inc. | $684M | 33 |
| USPH | U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc. | $1.3B | 65 |
| ASTH | Astrana Health, Inc. | $1.9B | 65 |
| SGRY | Surgery Partners, Inc. | $2.1B | 64 |
| SRTA | Strata Critical Medical, Inc. | $412M | 45 |
| BKD | Brookdale Senior Living Inc. | $2.4B | 21 |
| INNV | InnovAge Holding Corp. | $1.3B | 77 |
Peer medians: ROE -30.0% · P/E 25.9x · Gross margin 63.3%
Company Deep Dive
A 10,000-word report: the business and its segments, what management promised on earnings calls and whether it delivered, the competition, and how things could turn out.