BTU
SinkerPeabody Energy Corporation · Energy · United States · $2.8B cap · $40.3M/day traded
$16.03 +0.1% · close 6 Nov · scored 7 Nov
Sinker: Weak business, rich price and weak momentum. Nothing here to keep it afloat.
After its 4 Nov results, analysts left next year's EPS estimate little changed.
As of 7 Nov 2026, the MoatMap Score for Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU) is 18/100, ranked against 25,000+ stocks in 38 markets (Quality 30, Value 45, Momentum 25, each scored against its sector).
Does the score work? Each tenth of the ranking, tracked monthly. See the record →
ABOUT PEABODY ENERGY CORPORATION
Read
Peabody Energy Corporation is the world's largest private-sector coal company, primarily engaged in mining metallurgical and thermal coal from operations across the United States and Australia. Its competitive moat is derived from its massive scale, extensive reserve base, low-cost production profile, and strategic port access for global exports. Despite industry headwinds, Peabody maintains a significant position as a key supplier for global electricity generation and steel production.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 5.0B | 4.9B | 4.2B | 3.9B | -8.1% | 4.1B | 4.2B | 4.7B | 10.1% |
| EPS | 9.01 | 5.90 | 3.06 | -0.44 | -41.8% | -1.19 | -0.96 | 2.80 | -2.9% |
| Shares | 143.9M | 128.7M | 121.4M | 121.6M | -15.5% | 121.9M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 361.6M | 399.2M | 467.2M | 459.9M | 8.3% | 374.1M | — | — | — |
| Equity | 3.2B | 3.5B | 3.7B | 3.5B | 3.1% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 1.2B | 1.0B | 606.5M | 333.7M | -34.2% | 95.8M | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | -28.7M | -342.6M | -598.1M | -346.6M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | -681.6M | -460.3M | -276.0M | -85.2M | — | — | — | — | — |
Made a new 52-week low in the latest session, 61% below its 52-week high. The fall has not stopped yet.
Swung more than 70% of stocks we rank over the past year (volatility 56% a year).
How this is worked out
The MoatMap Score weighs the business, its price and its trend. The price check reads only the chart: the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn (the Turning up rule above) cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: how much the price moved day to day over the past year, scaled to a yearly figure (annualised volatility) and ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Energy, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of BTU are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTU | Peabody Energy Corporation(you) | $2.8B | 18 |
| CNR | Core Natural Resources, Inc. | $4.6B | 31 |
| NC | NACCO Industries, Inc. | $260M | 20 |
| NRP | Natural Resource Partners L.P. | $1.3B | 80 |
| ARLP | Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. | $3.4B | 92 |
| WBI | WaterBridge Infrastructure LLC | $3.7B | 21 |
| WTTR | Select Water Solutions, Inc. | $2.6B | 28 |
| KGS | Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. | $4.5B | 20 |
| EROK | EagleRock Land LLC | $2.4B | 27 |
| IEP | Icahn Enterprises L.P. | $4.1B | 22 |
Peer medians: ROE 10.2% · P/E 14.0x · Gross margin 45.5%
Company Deep Dive
A 10,000-word report: the business and its segments, what management promised on earnings calls and whether it delivered, the competition, and how things could turn out.