Also trades as DEC.L.
DEC
Second WindAI neutralDiversified Energy Company · Energy · United States · $1.0B cap · $10.1M/day traded
$13.75 +2.6% · close 11 Nov · scored 11 Nov
Score up 1.7 since 10 Nov.
Second Wind: Cheap with strong momentum, but the business does not earn the optimism.
Around its 5 Nov results, analysts left next year's EPS estimate little changed.
As of 11 Nov 2026, the MoatMap Score for Diversified Energy Company (DEC) is 77/100, ranked against 25,000+ stocks in 38 markets (Quality 46, Value 68, Momentum 60, each scored against its sector).
Does the score work? Each tenth of the ranking, tracked monthly. See the record →
Diversified Energy buys mature, producing US natural gas and oil wells and is repurchasing shares quickly, retiring nearly 5% of shares outstanding in 90 days. Higher US gas prices from LNG export demand help cash flow, but the model relies on acquiring declining assets with debt and carries large well-retirement obligations, so it is a cash-yield vehicle rather than a compounding business. Forward estimates were cut about 3% over the past month.
ABOUT DIVERSIFIED ENERGY COMPANY
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Diversified Energy Company is an independent energy company focused on the acquisition and operation of mature, low-decline producing natural gas and oil wells. The company's competitive moat is its unique 'Stewardship' model, which maximizes cash flow from existing assets while minimizing capital expenditure and decommissioning liabilities. It operates as a highly cash-generative, low-risk operator in the Appalachian and Central US basins.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1.9B | 868.3M | 794.8M | 1.6B | -5.7% | 2.0B | 1.8B | 2.4B | 21.0% |
| EPS | -14.82 | 15.87 | -2.17 | 4.67 | -45.8% | 1.00 | 3.02 | 7.86 | 29.8% |
| Shares | 41.4M | 47.6M | 50.6M | 77.0M | +85.7% | 70.7M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 1.5B | 1.3B | 1.7B | 3.0B | 27.3% | 3.2B | — | — | — |
| Equity | -152.7M | 585.8M | 400.1M | 984.1M | 29.6% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 387.8M | 291.4M | 220.7M | 464.6M | 6.2% | 575.5M | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | -386.5M | -246.7M | -266.8M | -820.2M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | -6.5M | -67.4M | 58.4M | 448.4M | — | — | — | — | — |
No clear trend: not near its 52-week low, and not in a steady uptrend.
Calmer than 55% of stocks we rank over the past year (volatility 39% a year).
How this is worked out
The MoatMap Score weighs the business, its price and its trend. The price check reads only the chart: the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn (the Turning up rule above) cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: how much the price moved day to day over the past year, scaled to a yearly figure (annualised volatility) and ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Energy, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of DEC are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEC | Diversified Energy Company(you) | $1.0B | 77 |
| NFG | National Fuel Gas Company | $7.7B | 55 |
| SLNG | Stabilis Solutions, Inc. | $83M | 38 |
| NRP | Natural Resource Partners L.P. | $1.3B | 75 |
| FET | Forum Energy Technologies, Inc. | $1.0B | 69 |
| SBR | Sabine Royalty Trust | $1.1B | 68 |
| PBT | Permian Basin Royalty Trust | $1.6B | 74 |
| GRNT | Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. | $773M | 68 |
| CAPL | CrossAmerica Partners LP | $844M | 65 |
| GLP | Global Partners LP | $1.6B | 69 |
Peer medians: ROE 10.1% · P/E 14.2x · Gross margin 44.4%
Company Deep Dive
A 10,000-word report: the business and its segments, what management promised on earnings calls and whether it delivered, the competition, and how things could turn out.