GEO
BuyPremium GrowerAI neutralThe GEO Group, Inc. · Industrials · United States · $3.6B cap · $71.0M/day traded
$27.36 +1.6% · close 23 Oct · scored 24 Oct
Premium Grower: Strong business with the market behind it, priced at a premium.
Report expected 5 Nov: the next-year EPS estimate has risen 3.3% over the last 14 weeks.
As of 24 Oct 2026, MoatMap's StockRank for The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) is 77/100, ranked against 24,000+ stocks in 35 markets (Quality 58, Value 43, Momentum 72, each scored against its sector).
Does StockRank work? Each month we publish how every decile did, whichever way it went. See the record →
GEO Group operates private prisons and immigration detention centres and is winning new contracts, including a 1,320-bed facility in North Carolina and a 1,188-bed facility in Colorado. Demand currently depends heavily on federal immigration policy, the business is capital intensive and indebted, and contracts can change with political direction.
ABOUT THE GEO GROUP, INC.
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The GEO Group is a leading provider of correctional, detention, and reentry services to governmental agencies worldwide, owning, leasing, and managing facilities. The company offers a range of services including security, inmate transportation, and rehabilitation programs. GEO operates in a highly specialized and regulated sector, benefiting from long-term contracts and a significant operational footprint, with its competitive position built on extensive experience in managing secure facilities.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.4B | 2.4B | 2.4B | 2.6B | 3.5% | 2.8B | 3.0B | 3.3B | 11.2% |
| EPS | 1.18 | 0.78 | 0.23 | 1.85 | 16.2% | 2.13 | 2.81 | — | 52.0% |
| Shares | 124.1M | 126.1M | 140.2M | 136.2M | +9.8% | 131.6M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 2.1B | 1.9B | 1.8B | 1.7B | -6.0% | 1.6B | — | — | — |
| Equity | 1.2B | 1.3B | 1.3B | 1.5B | 8.9% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 288.0M | 277.8M | 242.2M | 72.6M | -36.8% | 198.7M | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | 11.4M | -53.4M | -101.7M | 105.7M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | -699.1M | -208.1M | -168.9M | -185.7M | — | — | — | — | — |
No clear trend: not near its 52-week low, and not in a steady uptrend.
Swung more than 61% of stocks we rank over the past year (49% a year).
How this is worked out
StockRank judges the business. The price check reads only the chart: it is the price side of the Momentum score, in words.
The rules: Still falling is a new 52-week low in the last two weeks, at least 25% below the high. Finding a floor is no new low since. Turning up is 20 or more trading days without a new low, at least 10% off it, and back above a rising 50-day average. In an uptrend is above the 200-day average and within 15% of the high.
In 2,112 US drawdowns since 2001, buying while the price was still falling was followed by a further 20% drop 42% of the time. Waiting for a turn like this one cut that to 33%, at about 7% higher prices and with no better returns. Part of that cut is simply not buying: 13% of falls never turned, and waiting kept those out. Among turns that were bought, 38% still fell another 20%, and 33% of turns were followed by a new low within six months. The benefit was largest in crashes such as 2008 and 2020.
What it measures: day-to-day price moves over the past year, as a yearly figure, ranked against every stock we cover. Very calm under 20% a year, Calm 20 to 30%, Average 30 to 40%, Bumpy 40 to 55%, Very bumpy above that.
What we found: across about 13,500 stocks in 34 markets (2002 to 2025), past swings were a good guide to the next year's, and bumpier stocks fell further. How much further changed too much between eras to put a number on it.
Calm is not safe: a calm stock can still slide steadily.
Rules fixed before any data was fetched. Describes the chart, not a recommendation.
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Industrials, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of GEO are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | StockRank | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEO | The GEO Group, Inc.(you) | $3.6B | 77 | Buy |
| BRC | Brady Corporation | $3.8B | 82 | Strong Buy |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | $3.0B | 69 | Buy |
| MSA | MSA Safety Incorporated | $7.0B | 76 | Buy |
| BCO | The Brink's Company | $4.6B | 66 | Buy |
| ADT | ADT Inc. | $5.0B | 91 | Strong Buy |
| NSSC | Napco Security Technologies, Inc. | $1.4B | 70 | Buy |
| MG | Mistras Group, Inc. | $686M | 72 | Buy |
| NL | NLI Holdings, Inc. | $284M | 67 | Buy |
| CIX | CompX International Inc. | $445M | 98 | Strong Buy |
Peer medians: ROE 8.9% · P/E 25.9x · Gross margin 29.2%
Company Deep Dive
Business segments breakdown, earnings transcript analysis, management credibility scoring, competitive landscape, and scenario modelling.