Company Deep Dive
Business segments breakdown, earnings transcript analysis, management credibility scoring, competitive landscape, and scenario modelling.
GEO
Strong BuyPremium GrowerFLAGThe GEO Group, Inc. · Industrials · United States · $4.2B · Avg Vol: $65M/d
The GEO Group has strong momentum at M78 with a buyback on file, but value at V44 is below the calibrated floor and quality Q55 is modest, so stage one fails.
COMPANY DESCRIPTION
The GEO Group is a leading provider of correctional, detention, and reentry services to governmental agencies worldwide, owning, leasing, and managing facilities. The company offers a range of services including security, inmate transportation, and rehabilitation programs. GEO operates in a highly specialized and regulated sector, benefiting from long-term contracts and a significant operational footprint, with its competitive position built on extensive experience in managing secure facilities.
FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)
| Year | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | TTM | 2026E | 2027E | Fwd CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2.4B | 2.4B | 2.4B | 2.6B | 3.5% | 2.8B | 3.0B | 3.3B | 11.4% |
| EPS | 1.18 | 0.78 | 0.23 | 1.85 | 16.2% | 2.12 | 2.81 | — | 52.0% |
| Shares | 124.1M | 126.1M | 140.2M | 136.2M | +9.8% | 131.6M | — | — | — |
| Debt | 2.1B | 1.9B | 1.8B | 1.7B | -6.0% | 1.6B | — | — | — |
| Equity | 1.2B | 1.3B | 1.3B | 1.5B | 8.9% | — | — | — | — |
| Op CF | 288.0M | 277.8M | 242.2M | 72.6M | -36.8% | 198.7M | — | — | — |
| Inv CF | 11.4M | -53.4M | -101.7M | 105.7M | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fin CF | -699.1M | -208.1M | -168.9M | -185.7M | — | — | — | — | — |
SCORE BREAKDOWN
FUNDAMENTALS
SECTOR PEERS
Closest peers in Industrials, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of GEO are excluded.
| Ticker | Company | Mkt Cap | StockRank | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEO | The GEO Group, Inc.(you) | $4.2B | 81 | Strong Buy |
| BRC | Brady Corporation | $4.5B | 86 | Strong Buy |
| CXW | CoreCivic, Inc. | $3.3B | 73 | Buy |
| ADT | ADT Inc. | $5.5B | 90 | Strong Buy |
| MSA | MSA Safety Incorporated | $7.3B | 75 | Buy |
| BCO | The Brink's Company | $4.6B | 58 | Hold |
| NSSC | Napco Security Technologies, Inc. | $1.3B | 70 | Buy |
| MG | Mistras Group, Inc. | $589M | 78 | Buy |
| CIX | CompX International Inc. | $394M | 99 | Strong Buy |
| NL | NLI Holdings, Inc. | $284M | 60 | Hold |
Peer medians: ROE 8.8% · P/E 27.6x · Gross margin 29.3%