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GEO

BUYFLAG

The GEO Group, Inc. · Industrials · United States · $4.1B · Avg Vol: $64M/d

79
StockRank
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Q
55
V
43
M
74
P/E (TTM)
14.9x
ROE
19.3%
D/E
1.1x
Dividend %
AI CONVICTION THESIS

The GEO Group has strong momentum at M78 with a buyback on file, but value at V44 is below the calibrated floor and quality Q55 is modest, so stage one fails.

COMPANY DESCRIPTION

The GEO Group is a leading provider of correctional, detention, and reentry services to governmental agencies worldwide, owning, leasing, and managing facilities. The company offers a range of services including security, inmate transportation, and rehabilitation programs. GEO operates in a highly specialized and regulated sector, benefiting from long-term contracts and a significant operational footprint, with its competitive position built on extensive experience in managing secure facilities.

FINANCIAL SUMMARY (USD)

Year2022202320242025CAGRTTM2026E2027EFwd CAGR
Revenue2.4B2.4B2.4B2.6B3.5%2.7B3.0B3.2B11.0%
EPS1.180.780.231.8516.2%2.052.6241.9%
Shares124.1M126.1M140.2M136.2M+9.8%133.6M
Debt2.1B1.9B1.8B1.7B-6.0%1.7B
Equity1.2B1.3B1.3B1.5B8.9%
Op CF288.0M277.8M242.2M72.6M-36.8%157.9M
Inv CF11.4M-53.4M-101.7M105.7M
Fin CF-699.1M-208.1M-168.9M-185.7M
Loading 1Y...
PRICE (1Y)+8.8%
28.4429.1729.8930.6231.34Jun 12Jul 7Jul 27
SMA 50SMA 200
Close
$30.93
RSI (14)
69.6
52W High
$32.25
From 52W High
1.0%

SCORE BREAKDOWN

Quality
55
ROIC
14.2%77.9
ROE
19.3%85.1
GP/Assets
18.1%57.2
Op. Margin
12.7%71.5
FCF/Assets
-3.2%16.6
Piotroski
784.3
Int. Cover
3.1x26.9
D/E Ratio
1.11x17.2
Current Ratio
1.75x52.8
Value
43
P/E (TTM)
14.9x64.9
EV/EBITDA
12.2x48.7
P/FCF
N/A
P/B
2.6x37.8
P/S
1.5x49.6
Div Yield
N/A
Momentum
74
52W High %
96%92.3
RS 6M
59%96.2
SMA 50/200
1.42x95.6
EPS Rev 4W
0.0%79.8
EPS Rev 12W
-6.5%12.3
EPS Improve
-19%10.2
Q Growth
96%86.2

FUNDAMENTALS

Market Cap
$4.1B
P/E (Forward)
18.4x
Gross Margin
25.5%

SECTOR PEERS

Closest peers in Industrials, ranked by industry match, size, and score similarity. Cross-listings of GEO are excluded.

TickerCompanyMkt CapStockRankSignal
GEOThe GEO Group, Inc.(you)$4.1B79BUY
CXWCoreCivic, Inc.$3.1B81STRONG BUY
MSAMSA Safety Incorporated$6.7B77BUY
BRCBrady Corporation$4.5B90STRONG BUY
BCOThe Brink's Company$5.0B70BUY
ADTADT Inc.$5.2B93STRONG BUY
NSSCNapco Security Technologies, Inc.$1.3B75BUY
MGMistras Group, Inc.$492M67BUY
NLNLI Holdings, Inc.$284M74BUY
CIXCompX International Inc.$329M98STRONG BUY

Peer medians: ROE 10.7% · P/E 30.7x · Gross margin 28.6%

The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) — Stock Score Summary

The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) has a MoatMap StockRank of 79/100 based on Quality (55/100), Value (43/100), and Momentum (74/100) factor scores. The current signal is BUY. The GEO Group has strong momentum at M78 with a buyback on file, but value at V44 is below the calibrated floor and quality Q55 is modest, so stage one fails.

The GEO Group is a leading provider of correctional, detention, and reentry services to governmental agencies worldwide, owning, leasing, and managing facilities. The company offers a range of services including security, inmate transportation, and rehabilitation programs. GEO operates in a highly specialized and regulated sector, benefiting from long-term contracts and a significant operational footprint, with its competitive position built on extensive experience in managing secure facilities.

Key Financial Metrics

Price$30.93
Market Cap$4.1B
P/E (TTM)14.93
P/E (Forward)18.40
Price/Book2.58
Return on Equity19.3%
Return on Invested Capital14.2%
Debt/Equity1.11x
Gross Margin25.5%
Operating Margin12.7%
Revenue Growth16.6%
Free Cash Flow$-125M

The GEO Group, Inc. operates in the Security & Protection Services industry, part of the Industrials sector (United States).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is The GEO Group, Inc.’s (GEO) StockRank?
MoatMap’s StockRank for The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) is 79/100, with a Buy signal. It is a composite of Quality (55), Value (43), and Momentum (74) factor ranks across MoatMap’s 20,000+ stock universe.
Does The GEO Group, Inc. have an economic moat?
The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) has a Quality factor score of 55/100. The Quality factor combines ROIC, Piotroski F-Score, and leverage — the financial fingerprints of a durable competitive advantage. A Quality score above 70 typically indicates a company with the characteristics of a moated business.
Is The GEO Group, Inc. a buy, hold, or sell?
MoatMap’s current signal for The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) is Buy, based on a StockRank of 79/100. Signals are derived mechanically from the StockRank composite and should be one input among many — combine with your own thesis on management, competitive position, and valuation.
What sector is The GEO Group, Inc. in?
The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) operates in the Industrials sector, specifically the Security & Protection Services industry (United States).